Consumer Metrics InstituteSM
Daily Household Index

E-Mail:   
See sample Sector Sub-Index Charts available only to Members:

HomeHistoryAutomotiveEntertainmentFinancialHealthHouseholdHousingRecreationRetailTechnologyTravelFAQsDownloadsMembershipContactAbout


"Bringing the measurements of critical economic activities into the twenty-first century by
mining tracking data for an understanding of what American consumers were doing yesterday."

Chart
(Click here for best resolution)


Last 10 Household Index Values
Date:07/07/201807/08/201807/09/201807/10/201807/11/201807/12/201807/13/201807/14/201807/15/201807/16/2018
Value:103.19102.84103.39105.24104.24103.22102.53102.34101.95102.34

 Note: The Household Index indicates consumer interest in durable household goods, including furniture, appliances, home decorating supplies, home remodeling supplies and services, apparel and jewelry.



 

Commentary


     
  June 28, 2018 - BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2018 GDP Growth Downward to 2.00%:

In their third (and final) estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2018, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +2.00% annual rate, down -0.17% from their previous estimate and down -0.88% from the prior quarter.

The growth rate for consumer spending for services was revised downward again by -0.15%, and there was a minor upward revision (+0.04%) to consumer spending on goods -- although that spending was still net contracting (-0.09%). Similarly, the growth in inventories declined by -0.14% while the growth in commercial fixed investment rose by a counterbalancing +0.18%. The growth rates for both exports and imports weakened by an aggregate -0.12%.

Real annualized household disposable income increased by $29 per annum, and the household savings rate was revised upward +0.2% to 3.3%. While the savings rate remained below recent norms, it was +0.6% better than the prior quarter -- which was the lowest level seen since the third quarter of 2007.

For this revision the BEA assumed an effective annualized deflator of 2.19%. During the same quarter (January 2018 through March 2018) the inflation recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in their CPI-U index was higher at 2.53%. Under estimating inflation results in optimistic growth rates, and if the BEA's "nominal" data was deflated using CPI-U inflation information the headline growth number would have been lower at a +1.71% annualized growth rate.

Among the notable items in the report :

-- Consumer expenditures for goods contracted at a -0.09% annualized rate (down -1.76% from the prior quarter).

-- The contribution to the headline from consumer spending on services dropped -0.15% to +0.69%. The combined consumer contribution to the headline number was +0.60%, down over 2% (-2.15%) from 4Q-2017.

-- The headline contribution from commercial private fixed investments was +1.23%, up +0.18% from the previous report but down slightly (-0.08%) from the prior quarter.

-- Inventories subtracted -0.01% from the headline number. It is important to remember that the BEA's inventory numbers are exceptionally noisy (and susceptible to significant distortions/anomalies caused by commodity price or currency swings) while ultimately representing a zero reverting (and long term essentially zero sum) series.

-- The growth in governmental spending was revised upward slightly (+0.02%), adding +0.22% to the headline number (although that growth rate is down -0.29% from the prior quarter).

-- Exports contributed +0.44% to the headline number, down -0.39% from the prior quarter.

-- Imports subtracted -0.48% from the headline number, up +1.51% from the prior quarter. In aggregate, foreign trade subtracted -0.04% from the headline number.

-- The "real final sales of domestic product" growth was revised downward to +2.01%, down a substantial -1.40% from the prior quarter. This is the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy and it excludes the inventory data.

-- As mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable was revised upward $29 in this report. The household savings rate was reported to be 3.3% (up +0.6% from the prior quarter). As always, it is important to keep this line item in perspective: real per-capita annual disposable income is up only +7.76% in aggregate since the second quarter of 2008 -- a meager annualized +0.77% growth rate over the past 39 quarters.




The Numbers, As Revised

As a quick reminder, the classic definition of the GDP can be summarized with the following equation :

GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government spending + (exports - imports)


or, as it is commonly expressed in algebraic shorthand :

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)


In the new report the values for that equation (total dollars, percentage of the total GDP, and contribution to the final percentage growth number) are as follows :

GDP Components Table

Total GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
Annual $ (trillions) $20.0 = $13.8 + $3.4 + $3.4 + $-0.6
% of GDP 100.00% = 68.98% + 16.93% + 17.27% + -3.18%
Contribution to GDP Growth % 2.00% = 0.60% + 1.22% + 0.22% + -0.04%


The quarter-to-quarter changes in the contributions that various components make to the overall GDP can be best understood from the table below, which breaks out the component contributions in more detail and over time. In the table below we have split the "C" component into goods and services, split the "I" component into fixed investment and inventories, separated exports from imports, added a line for the BEA's "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product" and listed the quarters in columns with the most current to the left :

Quarterly Changes in % Contributions to GDP

1Q-2018 4Q-2017 3Q-2017 2Q-2017 1Q-2017 4Q-2016 3Q-2016 2Q-2016 1Q-2016 4Q-2015 3Q-2015 2Q-2015 1Q-2015
Total GDP Growth 2.00% 2.88% 3.16% 3.06% 1.24% 1.76% 2.79% 2.25% 0.57% 0.48% 1.63% 2.74% 3.24%
Consumer Goods -0.09% 1.67% 0.97% 1.16% 0.15% 1.03% 0.69% 1.30% 0.46% 0.63% 0.95% 0.99% 0.93%
Consumer Services 0.69% 1.08% 0.52% 1.08% 1.17% 0.97% 1.23% 1.28% 0.77% 1.17% 0.90% 1.04% 1.56%
Fixed Investment 1.23% 1.31% 0.40% 0.53% 1.27% 0.28% 0.25% 0.22% -0.05% -0.41% 0.55% 0.77% 0.67%
Inventories -0.01% -0.53% 0.79% 0.12% -1.46% 1.06% 0.16% -0.67% -0.64% -0.68% -0.22% -0.63% 1.45%
Government 0.22% 0.51% 0.12% -0.03% -0.11% 0.03% 0.09% -0.16% 0.32% 0.05% 0.21% 0.60% 0.27%
Exports 0.44% 0.83% 0.25% 0.42% 0.85% -0.47% 0.74% 0.32% -0.33% -0.29% -0.51% 0.47% -0.59%
Imports -0.48% -1.99% 0.11% -0.22% -0.63% -1.14% -0.37% -0.04% 0.04% 0.01% -0.25% -0.50% -1.05%
Real Final Sales 2.01% 3.41% 2.37% 3.94% 2.70% 0.70% 2.63% 2.92% 1.21% 1.16% 1.85% 3.37% 1.79%





Summary and Commentary

The changes reflected in this report are arguably all just statistical noise. The major takeaways from this report were :

-- Consumer spending for goods was still reported to be contracting during the quarter, and the reported growth in services spending weakened materially.

-- The overall annualized growth rate for consumer spending dropped -2.15% on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

-- Although household disposable income improved quarter-to-quarter (most likely due to the reduced withholding rates in the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017"), most of that improvement went into increased savings.

-- The BEA's deflators were once again boosting the headline number, in this case by +0.29%.

The headline from the report should have read: "Consumer spending on goods continued to contract, while consumer spending on services was revised downward yet again." If consumers are the driving force for the US economy, a report like this should be raising major caution flags.
 
     
   
 Note: A more complete list of historical commentary can be found on our History Page ...
 
   



Household Sector 52-Week Sub-Indexes


 52-Week Sub-Indexes Available on Members Page: 
     Appliances 52-Week Sub-Index Chart 
     Clothing 52-Week Sub-Index Chart 
     Home Decorating 52-Week Sub-Index Chart 
     Home Improvement 52-Week Sub-Index Chart 
See sample Sector Sub-Index Charts available only to Members:


Links



HomeHistoryAutomotiveEntertainmentFinancialHealthHouseholdHousingRecreationRetailTechnologyTravelFAQsDownloadsMembershipContactAbout


Consumer Metrics Institute Presentation Series:
Economic Data for the 21st Century - Part 1 (Duration 7:35)
 
Economic Data for the 21st Century - Part 2 (Duration 11:35)
 

Consumer Metrics Institute In The News:
Global Economic Intersection (06/28/2018)
 
Global Economic Intersection (05/30/2018)
 
Archive.is - webpage capture (05/08/2018)
 
TalkMarkets - Financial Content That is Customized, Optimized, Socialized (04/28/2018)
 
Global Economic Intersection (04/27/2018)
 
QWAFAFEW New York (12/08/2017)
 
N93gs llc background check (11/23/2017)
 
Mlr corporation (11/22/2017)
 
Wilder enterprises l l c (11/17/2017)
 
Before It's News | Alternative News | UFO | Beyond Science | True News| Prophecy News | People Powered News (10/28/2016)
 
bertpowers (07/29/2016)
 
The Wall Street Examiner (06/27/2016)
 
Imgur: The most awesome images on the Internet (05/01/2016)
 
Follow the Money (02/05/2016)
 
Phil's Stock World (03/21/2015)
 
Visual Discovery & Social Curation Network (01/19/2015)
 
Schnizzle (01/17/2015)
 
Easynomics (09/29/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/29/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/25/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/16/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/27/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/14/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/13/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/11/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (01/07/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (11/01/2013)
 
World News (10/17/2013)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/12/2013)
 
FINANCIAL SENSE | Applying Common Sense to the Markets (06/27/2013)
 
MarketShadows - Investors Guide to the Galaxy (06/24/2013)
 
Elliott Wave Market Service | Independent. Clear. Simple. Precise. (06/01/2013)
 
silveristhenew | Silver as an investment (05/30/2013)
 
Phil's Stock World (05/30/2013)
 
World News (05/12/2013)
 
Phil's Stock World (02/28/2013)
 
Sense on Cents (01/03/2013)
 
RPM Mortgage, Inc. - Dick Lepre (11/05/2012)
 
midtownrepublican.com (06/09/2012)
 
trimtabs.com (06/08/2012)
 
ZeroHedge (06/08/2012)
 
The Daily Capitalist (04/27/2012)
 
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis (04/27/2012)
 
bullfax.com (04/27/2012)
 
Wall Street Examiner (04/27/2012)
 
The Daily Capitalist (03/29/2012)
 
America's Economic Future (03/22/2012)
 
Phil's Stock World (02/24/2012)
 
Phil's Stock World (02/08/2012)
 
Sense on Cents (01/20/2012)
 
Phil's Stock World (01/20/2012)
 
Icliks Incoming (11/24/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (11/22/2011)
 
Zimbio (11/04/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (10/27/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (10/20/2011)
 
Mike Norman Economics (09/29/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/27/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/22/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/21/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/20/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/19/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/18/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/16/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/15/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/15/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/14/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/13/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/12/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/09/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/08/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/08/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/08/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/06/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/06/2011)
 
RPM Mortgage, Inc. - Dick Lepre (09/02/2011)
 
Decline of the Empire (08/31/2011)
 
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis (08/29/2011)
 
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis (08/18/2011)
 
Business Insider (08/16/2011)
 
ETF Digest (08/15/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/08/2011)
 
The Basis Point Blog (08/05/2011)
 
David Gratke (08/01/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (07/30/2011)
 
RPM Mortgage, Inc. - Dick Lepre (07/29/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (07/22/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (07/12/2011)
 
Regator (07/03/2011)
 
America's Economic Future (06/27/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (06/09/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (06/08/2011)
 
Business Insider (05/05/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (05/05/2011)
 
Business Insider (04/13/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (04/05/2011)
 
Freedoms Phoenix (03/18/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (02/18/2011)
 
RPM Mortgage, Inc. - Dick Lepre (02/04/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (01/24/2011)
 
Jesse's Cafe Americain (01/08/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (11/13/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (11/10/2010)
 
EconomicGreenfield (10/31/2010)
 
Decline of the Empire (10/29/2010)
 
The Motley Fool (10/28/2010)
 
The Automatic Earth (10/28/2010)
 
Business Insider (10/27/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (10/14/2010)
 
Pragmatic Capitalism (10/10/2010)
 
ZeroHedge (10/07/2010)
 
Tainted Alpha (10/06/2010)
 
The Automatic Earth (10/05/2010)
 
Bob English at EconomicPolicyJournal.com (10/04/2010)
 
Daneric's Elliott Waves (10/04/2010)
 
Pragmatic Capitalism (10/04/2010)
 
Business Insider (09/30/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (09/28/2010)
 
The Automatic Earth (09/28/2010)
 
Business Insider (09/28/2010)
 
money.ninemsn.com.au (09/27/2010)
 
America's Economic Future (09/27/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (09/25/2010)
 
Jesse's Cafe Americain (09/21/2010)
 
The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter (09/21/2010)
 
Phil's Favorites (09/21/2010)
 
normxxx ruminates... (09/21/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (09/21/2010)
 
Business Insider (09/20/2010)
 
tinyhedge.blogspot.com (09/19/2010)
 
normxxx ruminates... (09/14/2010)
 
Bob English at EconomicPolicyJournal.com (09/13/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (09/12/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (09/10/2010)
 
Business Insider (09/07/2010)
 
Pragmatic Capitalism (09/01/2010)
 
ETF Digest (08/31/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (08/31/2010)
 
blogsforvictory.com (08/29/2010)
 
moneywatch.bnet.com (08/26/2010)
 
Business Insider (08/25/2010)
 
America's Economic Future (08/24/2010)
 
The Automatic Earth (08/23/2010)
 
DailyMarkets.com (08/23/2010)
 
Capitalogix (08/22/2010)
 
The Automatic Earth (08/21/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (08/20/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (08/17/2010)
 
Pragmatic Capitalism (08/17/2010)
 
Business Insider (08/17/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (08/10/2010)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/01/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (07/30/2010)
 
Tainted Alpha (07/30/2010)
 
rlslaw.calculatedcrunchnews.com (07/30/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (07/30/2010)
 
Benzinga (07/30/2010)
 
Decline of the Empire (07/29/2010)
 
Doug Ross @ Journal (07/29/2010)
 
Cara Community (07/28/2010)
 
jherbert.blogspot.com (07/27/2010)
 
Phil's Stock World (07/25/2010)
 
The Daily Capitalist (07/19/2010)
 
Happy Travails (07/17/2010)
 
RPM Mortgage, Inc. - Dick Lepre (07/16/2010)
 
business.financialpost.com (07/12/2010)
 
AdvisorAnalyst.com (07/12/2010)
 
The Motley Fool (07/12/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (07/10/2010)
 
Jesse's Cafe Americain (07/07/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (06/30/2010)
 
ZeroHedge (06/30/2010)
 
econblogreview.blogspot.com (06/29/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (06/29/2010)
 
Pragmatic Capitalism (06/29/2010)
 
The Motley Fool (06/11/2010)
 
Bob English at EconomicPolicyJournal.com (06/10/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (06/10/2010)
 
markettalk.newswires-americas.com (06/06/2010)
 
The Market Oracle UK (06/05/2010)
 
Cara Community (06/04/2010)
 
Safehaven.com (06/04/2010)
 
www.reallibertymedia.com (06/03/2010)
 
Rebel Traders (06/03/2010)
 
Pragmatic Capitalism (06/01/2010)
 
The Motley Fool (05/30/2010)
 
vimeo.com (05/18/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (05/10/2010)
 
biiwii.blogspot.com (05/05/2010)
 
Jesse's Cafe Americain (05/04/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (05/03/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (05/01/2010)
 
Rebel Traders (05/01/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (04/30/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (04/30/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (04/30/2010)
 
Decline of the Empire (04/29/2010)
 
thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com (04/28/2010)
 
the evil speculator (04/28/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (04/22/2010)
 
Wall Street Cheat Sheet (04/15/2010)
 
ZeroHedge (03/31/2010)
 
www.financialarmageddon.com (03/31/2010)
 
Contrarian Investors' Journal (03/30/2010)
 
Capitalogix (03/29/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (03/29/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (03/28/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (03/28/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (03/28/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (03/28/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (03/28/2010)
 
Contrarian Investors' Journal (03/16/2010)
 
America's Economic Future (03/15/2010)
 
The Big Picture (03/15/2010)
 
marknoonan.opinioneditorial.com (02/28/2010)
 
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis (02/26/2010)
 
Credit Writedowns (02/03/2010)
 
Phil's Stock World (01/02/2010)
 
Phil's Stock World (01/02/2010)
 
Phil's Stock World (01/02/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (10/10/1010)
 


Copyright ©2018 The Consumer Metrics Institute, Inc.