Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Historic Charts and Commentary

E-Mail:   
See sample 48-Week Trailing 91-Day Percentile Chart available only to Members:

HomeHistoryAutomotiveEntertainmentFinancialHealthHouseholdHousingRecreationRetailTechnologyTravelFAQsDownloadsMembershipContactAbout


"Bringing the measurements of critical economic activities into the twenty-first century by
mining tracking data for an understanding of what American consumers were doing yesterday."


Monthly Weighted Composite Consumer Leading Indicator for Past 48 Months



Monthly Weighted Composite Consumer Leading Indicator for Past 48 Months


Last 10 Monthly Index Values
Date:04/201505/201506/201507/201508/201509/201510/201511/201512/201501/2016
Value:98.8597.9899.77100.31100.5999.6998.6995.9398.54107.98


Daily Growth Index Past 60 Days


 Daily Growth Index Past 60 Days(1): 
 
Chart
(Click here for best resolution)
 
 Notes:
  (1) The daily values for the Consumer Metrics Institute's 91-day 'Trailing Quarter' Growth Index over the past 60 days. Please see our Frequently Asked Questions page for a more complete description of our Growth Index.


 


Daily Growth Index -vs- Full GDP Past 48 Months


 Growth Index -vs- Full GDP, Past 4 Years(2): 
 
Chart
(Click here for best resolution)
 
 Notes:
  (2) The Consumer Metrics Institute's 91-day 'Trailing Quarter' Growth Index -vs- BEA's Quarterly Full GDP Growth Rates over past 4 years. The quarterly GDP growth rates are shown as 3-month plateaus in the graph. The Consumer Metrics Institute's Growth Index is plotted as a monthly average.


 


BEA's "Real" GDP -vs- BPP Deflated "Nominal" GDP, Past 4 Years


 BEA "Real" GDP -vs- BPP Deflated "Nominal" GDP, Past 4 Years(3,4): 
 
Chart
(Click here for best resolution)
 
 Notes:
  (3) In the blue line above the BEA's nominal GDP has been deflated using the inflation rate measured by the Billion Prices Project (BPP) index.
  (4) Note that when deflating the line items in the GDP tables from the BEA it is important to treat the "nominal" import and export data as the effective net "real" data -- since there are no offsetting domestic transactions carrying the correspondingly inflated or deflated prices (i.e., the one-sided net impact of inflating imported commodities is "real" to the economy). The net consequences of inflating import prices may become material in times of substantial and sustained trade imbalances.


 


BEA's "Real" GDP -vs- BLS Deflated Per-Capita GDP, Past 4 Years


 BEA "Real" GDP -vs- BLS Deflated Per-Capita GDP, Past 4 Years(5): 
 
Chart
(Click here for best resolution)
 
 Notes:
  (5) Line items in the BEA's nominal GDP are deflated by either the Bureau of Labor Statistic's (BLS) CPI-U index or the BLS PPI index, and reported on a per-capita basis by using Census Bureau projected mid-quarter population data.


 


BEA's "Real" GDP -vs- BLS Deflated Per-Capita Disposable Income, Past 4 Years


 BEA "Real" GDP -vs- BLS Deflated Per-Capita Disposable Income, Past 4 Years(6): 
 
Chart
(Click here for best resolution)
 
 Notes:
  (6) Line items in the BEA's Disposable Personal Income report are deflated by the Bureau of Labor Statistic's (BLS) CPI-U index and reported on a per-capita basis by using Census Bureau projected mid-quarter population data.


 


BEA's "Real" GDP -vs- BLS Deflated Per-Capita Proprietors Income, Past 4 Years


 BEA "Real" GDP -vs- BLS Deflated Per-Capita Proprietor Income, Past 4 Years(7): 
 
Chart
(Click here for best resolution)
 
 Notes:
  (7) The Proprietors' income (with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) line from the BEA's Disposable Personal Income report are deflated by the Bureau of Labor Statistic's (BLS) CPI-U index and reported on a per-capita basis by using Census Bureau projected mid-quarter population data.


 

Commentary


     
  January 29, 2016 - BEA Estimates 4th Quarter 2015 GDP Growth at 0.69%:

In their first "Preliminary" estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +0.69% annualized rate, down -1.30% from the third quarter.

All of the key line items in this report showed meaningful deterioration relative to the third quarter. The reported growth in consumer spending was less than half of that recorded during the prior quarter. The growth in fixed investments nearly disappeared, as did growth in governmental spending. Exports continued to crater, showing outright contraction.

In fact, the only good news was that the ongoing inventory contraction weakened, while imports were less of a drag on the rest of the economy (the result of both lower oil prices and generally weakening demand). As we have mentioned a number of times before, the BEA's treatment of inventories can introduce noise and seriously distort the headline number over short terms -- which the BEA admits by also publishing a secondary headline that excludes the impact of inventories. But even this BEA "bottom line" (their "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product") was less than half of what was reported for the prior quarter.

One bright spot was that household income was reported to have grown during the quarter. Real annualized per capita disposable income was reported to be $38,445 per annum, up $197 from the previous quarter. The household savings rate rose to 5.4% -- up +0.2% from the prior quarter.

For this revision the BEA assumed an annualized deflator of 0.82%. During the same quarter (October 2015 through December 2015) the inflation recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in their CPI-U index was somewhat lower at 0.47%. Over estimating inflation results in pessimistic growth rates, and if the BEA's "nominal" data was deflated using CPI-U inflation information the headline growth number would be a somewhat better +1.04%.

Among the notable items in the report :

-- The headline contribution from consumer expenditures for goods was cut in half to +0.53% (down -0.55% from the previous quarter).

-- The contribution to the headline from consumer services weakened slightly to +0.93% (down -0.03% from the from the third quarter). The combined consumer contribution to the headline number was +1.46%, down -0.58% from 3Q-2015.

-- The headline contribution from commercial private fixed investments was a negligible +0.03%, down -0.57% from the prior quarter.

-- The contribution from inventories remained negative -- subtracting -0.45% from the headline number. This, however, is an improvement of +0.26% from the -0.71% recorded in 3Q-2015.

-- Governmental spending added only +0.12% to the headline, a contribution that was more than halved from the 0.32% recorded during the previous quarter. The reported growth was exclusively in Federal spending.

-- The contribution to the headline number from exports swung into contraction at -0.31%, significantly less than the essentially neutral reading (+0.09%) in the prior quarter. This contraction is likely to continue until either the dollar or global economic growth reverse direction.

-- Imports subtracted somewhat less from the headline number (-0.16%) than during the previous quarter. Again we can credit dollar growth, oil gluts and weakening domestic demand for this improvement.

-- The "real final sales of domestic product" is now reported to be growing at a +1.14% annualized rate, down substantially (more than halved) from the +2.70% in the prior quarter. This is the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy and it excludes the reported inventory contraction.

-- Also as mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income was reported to have grown by $197 during the quarter, and the household savings rate also rose. However, it remains important to keep this improvement in perspective. Real per-capita annual disposable income is up only +4.82% in aggregate since the second quarter of 2008 -- a meager annualized +0.63% growth rate over the past 30 quarters.




The Numbers

As a quick reminder, the classic definition of the GDP can be summarized with the following equation :

GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government spending + (exports - imports)


or, as it is commonly expressed in algebraic shorthand :

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)


In the new report the values for that equation (total dollars, percentage of the total GDP, and contribution to the final percentage growth number) are as follows :

GDP Components Table

Total GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
Annual $ (trillions) $18.1 = $12.4 + $3.0 + $3.2 + $-0.5
% of GDP 100.0% = 68.6% + 16.7% + 17.7% + -2.9%
Contribution to GDP Growth % 0.69% = 1.46% + -0.42% + 0.12% + -0.47%


The quarter-to-quarter changes in the contributions that various components make to the overall GDP can be best understood from the table below, which breaks out the component contributions in more detail and over time. In the table below we have split the "C" component into goods and services, split the "I" component into fixed investment and inventories, separated exports from imports, added a line for the BEA's "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product" and listed the quarters in columns with the most current to the left :

Quarterly Changes in % Contributions to GDP

4Q-2015 3Q-2015 2Q-2015 1Q-2015 4Q-2014 3Q-2014 2Q-2014 1Q-2014 4Q-2013 3Q-2013 2Q-2013 1Q-2013 4Q-2012 3Q-2012 2Q-2012 1Q-2012
Total GDP Growth 0.69% 1.99% 3.92% 0.64% 2.07% 4.27% 4.56% -0.91% 3.82% 2.98% 1.11% 1.91% 0.10% 0.50% 1.89% 2.67%
Consumer Goods 0.53% 1.08% 1.20% 0.25% 0.91% 0.91% 1.49% 0.25% 0.70% 0.60% 0.28% 1.39% 0.53% 0.63% 0.26% 1.11%
Consumer Services 0.93% 0.96% 1.23% 0.94% 1.95% 1.42% 1.11% 0.61% 1.66% 0.57% 0.68% 0.36% 0.25% 0.10% 0.20% 0.52%
Fixed Investment 0.03% 0.60% 0.83% 0.52% 0.39% 1.23% 0.87% 0.91% 0.79% 0.59% 0.40% 0.77% 1.03% 0.00% 0.98% 2.00%
Inventories -0.45% -0.71% 0.02% 0.87% -0.03% -0.01% 1.12% -1.29% -0.08% 1.48% 0.38% 0.28% -1.54% -0.18% 0.56% -0.53%
Government 0.12% 0.32% 0.46% -0.01% -0.26% 0.33% 0.21% 0.00% -0.51% -0.42% -0.38% -0.88% -0.75% -0.22% -0.39% -0.40%
Exports -0.31% 0.09% 0.64% -0.81% 0.71% 0.24% 1.28% -0.95% 1.42% 0.55% 0.64% 0.12% -0.07% 0.27% 0.61% 0.37%
Imports -0.16% -0.35% -0.46% -1.12% -1.60% 0.15% -1.52% -0.44% -0.16% -0.39% -0.89% -0.13% 0.65% -0.10% -0.33% -0.40%
Real Final Sales 1.14% 2.70% 3.90% -0.23% 2.10% 4.28% 3.44% 0.38% 3.90% 1.50% 0.73% 1.63% 1.64% 0.68% 1.33% 3.20%





Summary and Commentary

This report should be a wake-up call for anyone thinking that the "recovery" is steaming forward in utter isolation from the global slowdown :

-- The recorded growth dropped by nearly two-thirds, critically led by much weaker growth in consumer demand for goods and commercial fixed investments.

-- Exports fell into significant contraction.

-- The sustained growth in consumer spending for services is not discretionary -- it is primarily a consequence of rising Obamacare health care costs.

-- The quarter-to-quarter increase in the household savings rate (to 5.4%) goes a long ways towards explaining the ongoing weak retail sales. Household monies that are no longer being spent at the gasoline pump are simply being saved. This implies that households are not particularly confident when looking forward -- given international headlines and domestic political "fear, uncertainty and doubt" (FUD).

-- Finally, the numbers above show materially weaker economic growth within the US, after several prior lackluster quarters. There is a downward trend in the numbers which, absent an economic miracle, points to economic contraction in the near future.

We should again note that the BEA is famously incapable of accurately monitoring a dynamically weakening economy in "real time." They may eventually get it right, but only several years after the fact. For example, consider the BEA's constantly changing numbers for the first quarter of 2008 -- from a very similar +0.6% growth shown in the April 30th, 2008 "real time" preliminary report (which, incidentally, reportedly grew to +1.0% over the next two months -- and astonishingly remained at that level through the first of the annual July revisions in 2008) to an admittedly disastrous -2.7% contraction after further consideration and massive subsequent revisions (some 64 months later) :

BEA's Official and Changing View of First Quarter 2008 GDP

Reported Growth Rate Report Date Months Lag
+0.6% April 30, 2008 1
+1.0% June 26, 2008 3
-0.7% July 31, 2009 16
-1.8% July 29, 2011 40
-2.7% July 31, 2013 64




We are not suggesting that the fourth quarter of 2015 was as bad as the first quarter of 2008. We are merely pointing out that the economy was likely in a dynamic transition towards lower (and potentially negative) growth -- and that we may not know exactly what the actual 4Q-2015 growth rate was for some time to come.
 
     
     
  December 22, 2015 - BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2015 GDP Growth Upward to 1.99%:

In their third (and "final") estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +1.99% annualized rate, down -0.08% from their previous estimate -- and down nearly 2% (-1.93%) from the second quarter.

Almost all of the revisions in this report were minor, with the largest changes again involving the especially noisy inventory data. Most of the other line items were essentially unchanged. Inventories were reported to have been contracting at a -0.71% annualized rate, a -0.12% deterioration from from the -0.59% contraction rate reported in the previous estimate. As we have mentioned a number of times before, the BEA's treatment of inventories can introduce noise and seriously distort the headline number over short terms -- which the BEA admits by also publishing a secondary headline that excludes the impact of inventories. This BEA "bottom line" (their "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product") was actually revised upward +0.04% to a +2.70% growth rate for the third quarter, from the +2.66% previously reported.

Consumer activity once again contributed the vast bulk of the headline number (providing +2.04% in total), although that contribution was minimally less than in the previous estimate (down -0.01% in aggregate). Fixed commercial investments and governmental spending were both slightly improved, while exports and imports both weakened slightly from the previous estimate.

Household income was revised modestly downward. Real annualized per capita disposable income was reported to be $38,248 per annum, down $12 from the previous estimate but still up $281 per year from the prior quarter. The household savings rate remained at 5.2% -- up substantially from the prior quarter's 4.7% rate.

For this revision the BEA assumed an annualized deflator of 1.30%. During the same quarter (July 2015 through September 2015) the inflation recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in their CPI-U index was slightly negative (dis-inflationary), at -0.37%. Over estimating inflation results in pessimistic growth rates, and if the BEA's "nominal" data was deflated using CPI-U inflation information the headline number would show a much better +3.68% growth rate.

Among the notable items in the report :

-- The headline contribution from consumer expenditures for goods was +1.08% (up +0.03% from the previous estimate, but down -0.12% from the prior quarter).

-- The contribution to the headline from consumer services weakened slightly to +0.96% (down -0.04% from the earlier estimate and -0.27% from the second quarter). The combined consumer contribution to the headline number was +2.04%, down -0.39% from 2Q-2015.

-- The headline contribution from commercial private fixed investments was revised upward to +0.60%, up +0.06% from the previous report but still down -0.23% from prior quarter.

-- As mentioned above, inventories were again revised downward -- now subtracting -0.71% from the headline number instead of the -0.59% previously reported. As we have mentioned a number of times, this number should be largely ignored.

-- Governmental spending added +0.32% to the headline (nearly unchanged, and down -0.14% from the prior quarter). The reported growth was almost entirely in state and local spending.

-- The contribution to the headline number from exports (+0.09%) was less than in the previous report, and less than a sixth of the +0.64% recorded for 2Q-2015.

-- Imports subtracted slightly more from the headline number (-0.35%) than in the previous estimate.

-- The "real final sales of domestic product" is now reported to be growing at a +2.70% annualized rate, up slightly from the +2.66% in the previous estimate. Once again, this is the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy and it excludes the reported inventory contraction.

-- Also as mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income was reported to have grown materially during the quarter and the household savings rate also improved substantially. However, it is important to keep this improvement in perspective. Real per-capita annual disposable income is up only +4.28% in aggregate since the second quarter of 2008 -- a meager annualized +0.58% growth rate over the past 29 quarters.




The Numbers, As Revised

As a quick reminder, the classic definition of the GDP can be summarized with the following equation :

GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government spending + (exports - imports)


or, as it is commonly expressed in algebraic shorthand :

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)


In the new report the values for that equation (total dollars, percentage of the total GDP, and contribution to the final percentage growth number) are as follows :

GDP Components Table

Total GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
Annual $ (trillions) $18.1 = $12.4 + $3.0 + $3.2 + $-0.5
% of GDP 100.0% = 68.4% + 16.8% + 17.7% + -2.9%
Contribution to GDP Growth % 1.99% = 2.04% + -0.11% + 0.32% + -0.26%


The quarter-to-quarter changes in the contributions that various components make to the overall GDP can be best understood from the table below, which breaks out the component contributions in more detail and over time. In the table below we have split the "C" component into goods and services, split the "I" component into fixed investment and inventories, separated exports from imports, added a line for the BEA's "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product" and listed the quarters in columns with the most current to the left :

Quarterly Changes in % Contributions to GDP

3Q-2015 2Q-2015 1Q-2015 4Q-2014 3Q-2014 2Q-2014 1Q-2014 4Q-2013 3Q-2013 2Q-2013 1Q-2013 4Q-2012 3Q-2012 2Q-2012 1Q-2012
Total GDP Growth 1.99% 3.92% 0.64% 2.07% 4.27% 4.56% -0.91% 3.82% 2.98% 1.11% 1.91% 0.10% 0.50% 1.89% 2.67%
Consumer Goods 1.08% 1.20% 0.25% 0.91% 0.91% 1.49% 0.25% 0.70% 0.60% 0.28% 1.39% 0.53% 0.63% 0.26% 1.11%
Consumer Services 0.96% 1.23% 0.94% 1.95% 1.42% 1.11% 0.61% 1.66% 0.57% 0.68% 0.36% 0.25% 0.10% 0.20% 0.52%
Fixed Investment 0.60% 0.83% 0.52% 0.39% 1.23% 0.87% 0.91% 0.79% 0.59% 0.40% 0.77% 1.03% 0.00% 0.98% 2.00%
Inventories -0.71% 0.02% 0.87% -0.03% -0.01% 1.12% -1.29% -0.08% 1.48% 0.38% 0.28% -1.54% -0.18% 0.56% -0.53%
Government 0.32% 0.46% -0.01% -0.26% 0.33% 0.21% 0.00% -0.51% -0.42% -0.38% -0.88% -0.75% -0.22% -0.39% -0.40%
Exports 0.09% 0.64% -0.81% 0.71% 0.24% 1.28% -0.95% 1.42% 0.55% 0.64% 0.12% -0.07% 0.27% 0.61% 0.37%
Imports -0.35% -0.46% -1.12% -1.60% 0.15% -1.52% -0.44% -0.16% -0.39% -0.89% -0.13% 0.65% -0.10% -0.33% -0.40%
Real Final Sales 2.70% 3.90% -0.23% 2.10% 4.28% 3.44% 0.38% 3.90% 1.50% 0.73% 1.63% 1.64% 0.68% 1.33% 3.20%





Summary and Commentary

The revisions offered in this report were minimal and certainly not statistically significant. The most material revision was provided by the volatile, flaky and ultimately zero-reverting inventory data. If we had to ignore the noise and provide some "take aways" from this report, they are probably as follows:

-- In general, the economic growth provided by consumer spending is reported to be softening -- although the data on consumer spending for services has arguably become less reliable as a direct consequence of Obamacare.

-- The quarter-to-quarter increase in the household savings rate (to 5.2%) goes a long ways towards explaining the ongoing weak retail sales. Household monies that are no longer being spent at the gasoline pump are simply being saved. This implies that households are not particularly confident when looking forward.

-- Once again the contribution of exports to the headline number is a mere one-sixth what it was in the second quarter. The soaring dollar and plunging global economy have likely caught up with US exporters. In coming quarters we may look favorably back on a time when exports provided any growth at all.

-- The core domestic economy seems to be transitioning to (at least) slower growth, with exports leading the way.

-- The arguably high "deflators" utilized for this report may have skewed the headline number downward. For this reason alone it is possible that the real economy may have been performing better than these numbers would lead us to believe.

There was probably nothing of consequence in this report : none of the reported revisions were statistically significant, and -- based on historical precedence -- all of this data will be materially revised next July.

That said, we look forward to data coming in the new year that will be much more interesting.
 
     
     
  November 24, 2015 - BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2015 GDP Growth Upward to 2.07%:

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +2.07% annualized rate, up +0.58% from their previous estimate -- but still down nearly 2% (-1.85%) from the second quarter.

This report's headline number was buoyed substantially by a sharp revision in inventories. All of the other line items were either essentially unchanged or weaker. Although inventories are still reported to have been contracting at a -0.59% annualized rate, that is a +0.85% improvement from the -1.44% contraction rate reported in the previous estimate. As we have mentioned a number of times before, the BEA's treatment of inventories can introduce noise and seriously distort the headline number over short terms -- which the BEA admits by also publishing a secondary headline that excludes the impact of inventories. Because of the general weakness in the non-inventory line items, this BEA "bottom line" (their "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product") was revised downward -0.29% to a +2.66% growth rate for the third quarter, from the +2.93% previously reported.

Consumer activity once again contributed the vast bulk of the headline number (providing +2.05% in total), although that contribution was less than in the previous estimate (down -0.14% in aggregate). Fixed commercial investments and governmental spending were essentially unchanged, while exports and imports weakened materially from the previous estimate.

And in a glimmer of good news, household income was again revised significantly upward. Real annualized per capita disposable income was reported to be $38,260 per annum, up $174 from the previous estimate and now up $293 per year from the prior quarter. The household savings rate was reported to be 5.2% -- up substantially from the prior quarter's 4.7% rate.

For this revision the BEA assumed an annualized deflator of 1.32%. During the same quarter (July 2015 through September 2015) the inflation recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in their CPI-U index was slightly negative (dis-inflationary), at -0.37%. Over estimating inflation results in pessimistic growth rates, and if the BEA's "nominal" data was deflated using CPI-U inflation information the headline number would show a much better +3.78% growth rate.

Among the notable items in the report :

-- The headline contribution from consumer expenditures for goods was +1.05% (up +0.06% from the previous estimate, but down -0.15% from the prior quarter).

-- The contribution to the headline from consumer services weakened slightly to +1.00% (down -0.20% from the first estimate and -0.23% from the second quarter). The combined consumer contribution to the headline number was +2.05%, down -0.38% from 2Q-2015.

-- The headline contribution from commercial private fixed investments was revised slightly upward to +0.54%, up +0.07% from the previous report but down -0.29% from prior quarter.

-- As mentioned above, inventories were by far the largest revision -- now subtracting -0.59% from the headline number instead of the -1.44% previously reported. As we have mentioned a number of times, this number should be largely ignored.

-- Governmental spending added +0.29% to the headline (essentially unchanged, and down -0.17% from the prior quarter). The reported growth was almost entirely in state and local spending.

-- The contribution to the headline number from exports (+0.11%) was less than half of the number from the previous report, and only a sixth of the +0.64% recorded for 2Q-2015.

-- Imports subtracted more from the headline number (-0.33%) than in the previous estimate.

-- The "real final sales of domestic product" is now reported to be growing at a +2.66% annualized rate, down from the +2.93% in the previous estimate. Once again, this is the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy and it excludes the reported inventory contraction.

-- Also as mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income was reported to have grown materially during the quarter and the household savings rate also improved substantially. However, this real per-capita annual disposable income is up only +4.32% in aggregate since the second quarter of 2008 -- a meager annualized +0.58% growth rate over the past 29 quarters.




The Numbers, As Revised

As a quick reminder, the classic definition of the GDP can be summarized with the following equation :

GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government spending + (exports - imports)


or, as it is commonly expressed in algebraic shorthand :

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)


In the new report the values for that equation (total dollars, percentage of the total GDP, and contribution to the final percentage growth number) are as follows :

GDP Components Table

Total GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
Annual $ (trillions) $18.1 = $12.4 + $3.0 + $3.2 + $-0.5
% of GDP 100.0% = 68.6% + 16.6% + 17.8% + -2.9%
Contribution to GDP Growth % 2.07% = 2.05% + -0.05% + 0.29% + -0.22%


The quarter-to-quarter changes in the contributions that various components make to the overall GDP can be best understood from the table below, which breaks out the component contributions in more detail and over time. In the table below we have split the "C" component into goods and services, split the "I" component into fixed investment and inventories, separated exports from imports, added a line for the BEA's "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product" and listed the quarters in columns with the most current to the left :

Quarterly Changes in % Contributions to GDP

3Q-2015 2Q-2015 1Q-2015 4Q-2014 3Q-2014 2Q-2014 1Q-2014 4Q-2013 3Q-2013 2Q-2013 1Q-2013 4Q-2012 3Q-2012 2Q-2012 1Q-2012
Total GDP Growth 2.07% 3.92% 0.64% 2.07% 4.27% 4.56% -0.91% 3.82% 2.98% 1.11% 1.91% 0.10% 0.50% 1.89% 2.67%
Consumer Goods 1.05% 1.20% 0.25% 0.91% 0.91% 1.49% 0.25% 0.70% 0.60% 0.28% 1.39% 0.53% 0.63% 0.26% 1.11%
Consumer Services 1.00% 1.23% 0.94% 1.95% 1.42% 1.11% 0.61% 1.66% 0.57% 0.68% 0.36% 0.25% 0.10% 0.20% 0.52%
Fixed Investment 0.54% 0.83% 0.52% 0.39% 1.23% 0.87% 0.91% 0.79% 0.59% 0.40% 0.77% 1.03% 0.00% 0.98% 2.00%
Inventories -0.59% 0.02% 0.87% -0.03% -0.01% 1.12% -1.29% -0.08% 1.48% 0.38% 0.28% -1.54% -0.18% 0.56% -0.53%
Government 0.29% 0.46% -0.01% -0.26% 0.33% 0.21% 0.00% -0.51% -0.42% -0.38% -0.88% -0.75% -0.22% -0.39% -0.40%
Exports 0.11% 0.64% -0.81% 0.71% 0.24% 1.28% -0.95% 1.42% 0.55% 0.64% 0.12% -0.07% 0.27% 0.61% 0.37%
Imports -0.33% -0.46% -1.12% -1.60% 0.15% -1.52% -0.44% -0.16% -0.39% -0.89% -0.13% 0.65% -0.10% -0.33% -0.40%
Real Final Sales 2.66% 3.90% -0.23% 2.10% 4.28% 3.44% 0.38% 3.90% 1.50% 0.73% 1.63% 1.64% 0.68% 1.33% 3.20%





Summary and Commentary

Although the headline number has been revised upward, most of the line items were either essentially unchanged or were weaker. The upward revision was provided almost exclusively by the volatile, flaky and ultimately zero-reverting inventory data. The most notable items in this report are:

-- If we remove the noise created by the inventory data, we are left with the BEA's own "bottom line" -- the "real final sales of domestic product." That number shows a respectable +2.66% growth rate, down "only" -1.24% from the +3.90% number reported for the second quarter. Given the suspect nature of the inventory data, this is probably a somewhat closer read on the economy than the headline number.

-- The economic growth provided by consumer spending is reported to be softening -- although the data on consumer spending for services has arguably become noisier as a direct consequence on Obamacare.

-- A sharply increased 5.2% household savings rate goes a long ways towards explaining the weak retail sales numbers. Household monies that are no longer being spent at the gasoline pump are simply being saved. Households are not particularly confident when looking forward.

-- The contribution of exports to the headline number is a mere one-sixth what it was in the second quarter. The soaring dollar and plunging global economy have likely caught up with US exporters. In coming quarters we may look favorably back on a time when exports provided any growth at all.

This revision is a mixed bag : the headline improved, but only as the result of flaky inventory data. The core domestic economy seems to be transitioning to slower growth, with exports leading the way.

Meanwhile, a reported GDP growth in excess of 2% creates an ongoing dilemma for the FOMC's zero-rate policy. Frankly, the FOMC will likely ignore this upwardly revised headline -- which is probably what we all should do.
 
     
     
  October 29, 2015 - BEA Reports 3rd Quarter 2015 GDP Growing at 1.49%:

In their first estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +1.49% annualized rate, down -2.43% from the second quarter.

This report included significant changes in the details as well as the headline. By far the greatest quarter-over-quarter change was in inventories, which subtracted -1.44% from the headline after being essentially neutral during the prior quarter. As we have mentioned before, the BEA's treatment of inventories can introduce noise and seriously distort the headline number over short terms -- which the BEA admits by also publishing a secondary headline that excludes the impact of inventories. This BEA "bottom line" (their "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product") reported a much more respectable +2.93% growth rate for the third quarter.

Consumer activity once again contributed the bulk of the headline number (providing +2.19% in total), although that contribution was less than during the prior quarter (down -0.24% in aggregate). Fixed commercial investments, governmental spending and exports also weakened materially, while imports subtracted less from the headline than during the prior quarter.

Meanwhile there was better news for household income. Real annualized per capita disposable income was reported to be $38,086 per annum, up $251 per year from the prior quarter. The household savings rate was reported to be 4.7% -- up slightly from the prior quarter's 4.6% rate.

For this revision the BEA assumed an annualized deflator of 1.22%. During the same quarter (July 2015 through September 2015) the inflation recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in their CPI-U index was negative (dis-inflationary), at -0.37%. Over estimating inflation results in pessimistic growth rates, and if the BEA's "nominal" data was deflated using CPI-U inflation information the headline number would show a much better +3.10% growth rate.

Among the notable items in the report :

-- The headline contribution from consumer expenditures for goods was +0.99% (down -0.21% from the prior quarter).

-- The contribution to the headline from consumer services also weakened slightly to +1.20% (down -0.03% from the second quarter). The combined consumer contribution to the headline number was +2.19%, down -0.24% from 2Q-2015.

-- The headline contribution from commercial private fixed investments essentially halved, dropping to +0.47% -- down -0.36% from prior quarter. Spending on non-residential structures contracted while the growth rate for residential structures weakened.

-- As mentioned above, inventories contracted materially -- subtracting -1.44% from the headline number. As mentioned below, we suggest that this number should be largely ignored.

-- Governmental spending added +0.30% to the headline (down -0.16% from the prior quarter). The remaining growth was almost entirely in state and local spending.

-- The contribution to the headline number from exports (+0.24%) was less than half of the number from the prior quarter (down -0.40% from the +0.64% for 2Q-2015).

-- Imports subtracted less from the headline number (-0.27%) than during the previous quarter (a change of +0.19%).

-- The "real final sales of domestic product" is now reported to be growing at a +2.93% annualized rate, off only -0.97% from the very respectable +3.90% recorded for last quarter. Once again, this is the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy and it excludes the reported inventory contraction.

-- Also as mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income was reported to have grown materially during the quarter and the household savings rate also improved slightly. However, this admittedly good news should be read in the context of a real per-capita annual disposable income that is up only +3.84% in aggregate since the second quarter of 2008 -- a meager annualized +0.52% growth rate over the past 29 quarters.




The Numbers

As a quick reminder, the classic definition of the GDP can be summarized with the following equation :

GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government spending + (exports - imports)


or, as it is commonly expressed in algebraic shorthand :

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)


In the new report the values for that equation (total dollars, percentage of the total GDP, and contribution to the final percentage growth number) are as follows :

GDP Components Table

Total GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
Annual $ (trillions) $18.0 = $12.4 + $3.0 + $3.2 + $-0.5
% of GDP 100.0% = 68.6% + 16.6% + 17.8% + -2.9%
Contribution to GDP Growth % 1.49% = 2.19% + -0.97% + 0.30% + -0.03%


The quarter-to-quarter changes in the contributions that various components make to the overall GDP can be best understood from the table below, which breaks out the component contributions in more detail and over time. In the table below we have split the "C" component into goods and services, split the "I" component into fixed investment and inventories, separated exports from imports, added a line for the BEA's "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product" and listed the quarters in columns with the most current to the left :

Quarterly Changes in % Contributions to GDP

3Q-2015 2Q-2015 1Q-2015 4Q-2014 3Q-2014 2Q-2014 1Q-2014 4Q-2013 3Q-2013 2Q-2013 1Q-2013 4Q-2012 3Q-2012 2Q-2012 1Q-2012
Total GDP Growth 1.49% 3.92% 0.64% 2.07% 4.27% 4.56% -0.91% 3.82% 2.98% 1.11% 1.91% 0.10% 0.50% 1.89% 2.67%
Consumer Goods 0.99% 1.20% 0.25% 0.91% 0.91% 1.49% 0.25% 0.70% 0.60% 0.28% 1.39% 0.53% 0.63% 0.26% 1.11%
Consumer Services 1.20% 1.23% 0.94% 1.95% 1.42% 1.11% 0.61% 1.66% 0.57% 0.68% 0.36% 0.25% 0.10% 0.20% 0.52%
Fixed Investment 0.47% 0.83% 0.52% 0.39% 1.23% 0.87% 0.91% 0.79% 0.59% 0.40% 0.77% 1.03% 0.00% 0.98% 2.00%
Inventories -1.44% 0.02% 0.87% -0.03% -0.01% 1.12% -1.29% -0.08% 1.48% 0.38% 0.28% -1.54% -0.18% 0.56% -0.53%
Government 0.30% 0.46% -0.01% -0.26% 0.33% 0.21% 0.00% -0.51% -0.42% -0.38% -0.88% -0.75% -0.22% -0.39% -0.40%
Exports 0.24% 0.64% -0.81% 0.71% 0.24% 1.28% -0.95% 1.42% 0.55% 0.64% 0.12% -0.07% 0.27% 0.61% 0.37%
Imports -0.27% -0.46% -1.12% -1.60% 0.15% -1.52% -0.44% -0.16% -0.39% -0.89% -0.13% 0.65% -0.10% -0.33% -0.40%
Real Final Sales 2.93% 3.90% -0.23% 2.10% 4.28% 3.44% 0.38% 3.90% 1.50% 0.73% 1.63% 1.64% 0.68% 1.33% 3.20%





Summary and Commentary

This report is truly a mixed bag : the weaker headline is in some respects misleading, probably negatively impacted by aberrant inventory numbers and an over estimation of inflation. And yet at face value it shows somewhat weaker consumer activity and sharply lower commercial investments. Plus, exports may have started to fall off the cliff created by a stronger dollar and weakening global economy.

The Good :

-- The inventory line item is problematic even beyond the noise that it introduces to the headline number. In principle, over longer time spans it should be a mostly zero sum series, reverting to a mean that closely mirrors the economy's organic growth (i.e., whatever large numbers it subtracts this quarter are likely to be given back in a future quarters). Over shorter terms it is supposedly an indication of how companies are adjusting inventories to reflect changing customer activity (in this case shrinking inventories in anticipation of weakening sales). However, it can also be held hostage by rapidly changing deflators and exchange rates -- resulting in anomalies and aberrations in the data series that have very little to do with physical inventory levels. We suspect that the latter is at least somewhat in play with this report.

-- If we remove the noise created by the inventory data, we are left with the BEA's own "bottom line" -- the "real final sales of domestic product." That number shows a very respectable +2.93% growth rate, down "only" -0.97% from the astounding +3.90% number reported for the second quarter. Given the suspect nature of the inventory data, this is probably a somewhat closer read on the economy than the headline number.

-- We generally criticize the BEA for using low deflators that create overly optimistic headline numbers. Arguably, report this is the reverse case -- where over reported inflation is creating a pessimistic headline. Using the current dis-inflationary CPI-U data from the BLS as an alternate deflator results in a headline number in excess of 3% -- and the "real final sales" number becomes a "happy days are here again" +4.54%!

The Bad :

-- The economic growth provided by consumer spending and commercial investment is reported to be softening (if we believe the BEA's deflators).

-- Over recent years the BEA has reported economic growth during the winter (fourth and first quarters) that has materially lagged the growth that they have reported during the summer. It seems that their "seasonal adjustments" consistently fail to correct for seasonally bad weather. If that pattern continues, we can expect their data to disappoint over the next two quarters.

The Ugly :

-- Exports. Their contribution to the headline number more than halved quarter-to-quarter. The soaring dollar and plunging global economy have likely caught up with US exporters. In coming quarters we may look favorably back on a time when exports provided any growth at all.

A mixed bag indeed : the headline plunged, but the residual growth is likely under-reported and distorted by aberrant inventory data. Meanwhile, (at face value) the core domestic economy seems to be transitioning to slower growth, with exports leading the way.

That said, we frankly don't know if anyone (including the FOMC) can conclude much about the true state of the US economy from this report.
 
     
     
  September 25, 2015 - BEA Revises 2nd Quarter 2015 GDP Growth Upward Again, to 3.92%:

In their third estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a 3.92% annualized rate, up +0.22% from their previous estimate and up +3.28% from the first quarter.

This report included significant upward revisions to the growth rate contributions from consumer spending on services (up +0.30%) and commercial fixed investment (revised upward +0.17%). Inventory growth was revised downward by -0.20%, and all other segments of the economy were left essentially unchanged.

Real annualized per capita disposable income was reported to be $37,835 per annum, down another $8 per year from the last estimate. The household savings rate was revised downward to 4.6% -- now down over a half percent (-0.6%) from the prior quarter's 5.2% rate.

For this revision the BEA assumed an annualized deflator of 2.13%. During the same quarter (April 2015 through June 2015) the inflation recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in their CPI-U index was 3.52%. Under estimating inflation results in optimistic growth rates, and if the BEA's "nominal" data was deflated using CPI-U inflation information the headline number would show a more modest +2.61% growth rate.

Among the notable items in the report :

-- The headline contribution from consumer expenditures for goods was +1.20% (up +0.01% from the previous estimate).

-- The contribution to the headline from consumer services increased materially to +1.23% (up +0.30% from the previous report). The combined consumer contribution to the headline number was 2.43%, up +0.31% from the earlier estimate.

-- The headline contribution from commercial private fixed investments was revised upward to +0.83% -- up +0.17% from prior report.

-- Inventory growth was revised to nearly flat, providing +0.02% of the headline number (down -0.20% from the previous estimate).

-- Governmental spending added +0.46% to the headline (down -0.01% from the earlier report). The revised growth remained almost entirely in state and local infrastructure investment.

-- Exports were slightly down from the last estimate, but still added +0.64% to the headline number (down -0.01% from the first estimate).

-- Imports subtracted more from the headline number (-0.46%) than previously reported (a change of -0.04%).

-- The "real final sales of domestic product" is now reported to be growing at a +3.90% annualized rate. This is the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy and it excludes the reported inventory growth.

-- And as mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income was revised slightly downward and the household savings rate also deteriorated. The real per-capita annual disposable income is up only +3.16% in aggregate since the second quarter of 2008 -- a meager annualized +0.45% growth over the past 28 quarters.




The Numbers, As Revised

As a quick reminder, the classic definition of the GDP can be summarized with the following equation :

GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government spending + (exports - imports)


or, as it is commonly expressed in algebraic shorthand :

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)


In the new report the values for that equation (total dollars, percentage of the total GDP, and contribution to the final percentage growth number) are as follows :

GDP Components Table

Total GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
Annual $ (trillions) $17.9 = $12.2 + $3.0 + $3.2 + $-0.5
% of GDP 100.0% = 68.3% + 16.9% + 17.8% + -2.9%
Contribution to GDP Growth % 3.92% = 2.43% + 0.85% + 0.46% + 0.18%


The quarter-to-quarter changes in the contributions that various components make to the overall GDP can be best understood from the table below, which breaks out the component contributions in more detail and over time. In the table below we have split the "C" component into goods and services, split the "I" component into fixed investment and inventories, separated exports from imports, added a line for the BEA's "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product" and listed the quarters in columns with the most current to the left :

Quarterly Changes in % Contributions to GDP

2Q-2015 1Q-2015 4Q-2014 3Q-2014 2Q-2014 1Q-2014 4Q-2013 3Q-2013 2Q-2013 1Q-2013 4Q-2012 3Q-2012 2Q-2012 1Q-2012
Total GDP Growth 3.92% 0.64% 2.07% 4.27% 4.56% -0.91% 3.82% 2.98% 1.11% 1.91% 0.10% 0.50% 1.89% 2.67%
Consumer Goods 1.20% 0.25% 0.91% 0.91% 1.49% 0.25% 0.70% 0.60% 0.28% 1.39% 0.53% 0.63% 0.26% 1.11%
Consumer Services 1.23% 0.94% 1.95% 1.42% 1.11% 0.61% 1.66% 0.57% 0.68% 0.36% 0.25% 0.10% 0.20% 0.52%
Fixed Investment 0.83% 0.52% 0.39% 1.23% 0.87% 0.91% 0.79% 0.59% 0.40% 0.77% 1.03% 0.00% 0.98% 2.00%
Inventories 0.02% 0.87% -0.03% -0.01% 1.12% -1.29% -0.08% 1.48% 0.38% 0.28% -1.54% -0.18% 0.56% -0.53%
Government 0.46% -0.01% -0.26% 0.33% 0.21% 0.00% -0.51% -0.42% -0.38% -0.88% -0.75% -0.22% -0.39% -0.40%
Exports 0.64% -0.81% 0.71% 0.24% 1.28% -0.95% 1.42% 0.55% 0.64% 0.12% -0.07% 0.27% 0.61% 0.37%
Imports -0.46% -1.12% -1.60% 0.15% -1.52% -0.44% -0.16% -0.39% -0.89% -0.13% 0.65% -0.10% -0.33% -0.40%
Real Final Sales 3.90% -0.23% 2.10% 4.28% 3.44% 0.38% 3.90% 1.50% 0.73% 1.63% 1.64% 0.68% 1.33% 3.20%





Summary and Commentary

Once again the BEA is reporting solid economic growth for the US economy during the second quarter of 2015. And once again we need to mention some reasons for caution before breaking out the champagne and declaring that the US economy is thriving:

-- A significant portion of the "solid growth" in this headline number could be the result of understated BEA inflation data. Using deflators from the BLS results in a more modest 2.61% growth rate. And using deflators from the Billion Prices Project results in an even lower growth rate, at 1.94%.

-- The annualized growth of real per capita GDP (the number we generally use to evaluate other economies) comes in at about 1.9% using BLS deflators and about 1.2% using the BPP deflators. Keep in mind that population growth alone (not brilliant central bank maneuvers) contributes a 0.72% positive bias to the headline number.

Presumably, the FOMC had all of this information available during its latest deliberations on "normalizing" its benchmark interest rates. One might wonder how a nearly 4% official economic growth rate (with unemployment significantly under 6%) merits continued pedal-to-the-metal interest rate stimulus. Which in turn raises the question: What do they know about the economy that isn't reflected in the BEA's report? Or perhaps more to the point: If it is not the US economy or employment that spurs caution within the FOMC, has the Federal Reserve now taken upon itself new global or financial market mandates quite apart from those imposed by Congress?
 
     


Historical Commentary in PDF Format


 Commentary DateCommentary Title 
 2016-01-29g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail
 
 2015-12-22g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2015-11-24g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2015-10-29g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2015-09-25g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2015-08-27g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2015-07-30g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2015-06-24g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2015-05-29g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2015-04-29g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2015-03-27g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2015-02-27g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2015-01-30g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2014-12-23g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2014-11-25g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2014-10-30g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2014-09-26g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2014-08-28g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2014-07-30g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2014-06-25g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2014-05-29g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2014-04-30g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2014-03-27g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2014-02-28g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2014-01-30g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2013-12-20g Indicators
Consumer Metrics Institute News Feed
Subscribe to Consumer Metrics Institute News by Email

Consumer Metrics InstituteTM
Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

E-Mail 
 2013-12-05December 5, 2013 - BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2013 GDP Growth Sharply Upward to 3.60% Annual Rate 
 2013-11-07November 7, 2013 - BEA Estimates 3rd Quarter 2013 GDP Growth at 2.84% Annual Rate 
 2013-09-26September 26, 2013 - BEA Leaves 2nd Quarter 2013 GDP Growth Mostly Unchanged At 2.48% Annual Rate 
 2013-08-29August 29, 2013 - BEA Revises 2nd Quarter 2013 GDP Growth Upward To 2.52% Annual Rate 
 2013-07-31July 31, 2013 - BEA Estimates 2nd Quarter 2013 GDP Growth At 1.68% Annual Rate, While Revising 1st Quarter Sharply Downward 
 2013-06-26June 26, 2013 - BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2013 GDP Growth Downward To 1.78% Annual Rate 
 2013-05-30May 30, 2013 - BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2013 GDP Growth Down Slightly To 2.38% Annual Rate 
 2013-04-26April 26, 2013 - BEA Estimates 1st Quarter 2013 GDP Growing at 2.5% Annual Rate 
 2013-03-28March 28, 2013 - BEA Revises 4th Quarter 2012 GDP Upward to a 0.38% Annual Growth Rate 
 2013-03-19March 19, 2013 - Looking Back and Projecting Forward 
 2013-02-28February 28, 2013 - BEA Revises 4th Quarter 2012 GDP Upward to a 0.14% Annual Growth Rate 
 2013-01-30January 30, 2013 - BEA Reports 4th Quarter 2012 GDP Contracting at -0.14% Annual Rate 
 2013-01-03January 3, 2013 - A Final Review of 2012 Holiday Shopping Season 
 2012-12-20December 20, 2012 - BEA Raises 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth Estimate Once Again to 3.09% 
 2012-12-19December 19, 2012 - Updated Charts and Holiday Consumer Activities Revisited 
 2012-11-29November 29, 2012 - BEA Raises 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth Estimate to 2.67% 
 2012-11-26November 26, 2012 - Quick Update on the Impact of Super-Storm Sandy and the Electoral Blues 
 2012-11-05November 5, 2012 - Sandy and the Pre-Election Blues 
 2012-10-26October 26, 2012 - BEA Reports 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth at 2.02% 
 2012-10-23October 23, 2012 - 3rd Quarter GDP Preview and Chart Updates 
 2012-09-27September 27, 2012 - BEA Revises Annualized GDP Growth Downward to 1.26% 
 2012-08-29August 29, 2012 - BEA Revises Estimate of Annualized GDP Growth to 1.73% 
 2012-08-14August 14, 2012 - Our Weighted Composite Index Continues to Plunge 
 2012-07-27July 27, 2012 - BEA Estimates GDP Grew at 1.54% Rate During 2nd Quarter 
 2012-07-20July 20, 2012 - The Economic Cost of Ugly Politics 
 2012-06-28June 28, 2012 - BEA Leaves GDP Growth Rate Unchanged for 1Q-2012 at 1.88% 
 2012-06-19June 19, 2012 - Commentary and Chart Updates 
 2012-05-31May 31, 2012 - BEA Revises GDP Growth Rate for 1Q-2012 Down to 1.88% 
 2012-05-09May 9, 2012 - Chart Updates and Commentary 
 2012-04-27April 27, 2012 - BEA Report Shows GDP Growth Slowing During 1Q-2012 to 2.20% 
 2012-03-29March 29, 2012 - BEA Leaves 4Q-2011 Annualized GDP Growth Essentially Unchanged at 2.97% 
 2012-02-29February 29, 2012 - BEA Revises 4Q-2011 Annualized GDP Growth to 2.98% 
 2012-01-27January 27, 2012 - Headline 4Q-2011 GDP Growth of 2.75% Masks Mixed Signals 
 2012-01-19January 19, 2012 - Taking a Closer Look at Mixed Signals 
 2011-12-22December 22, 2011 - Third Quarter GDP Revised Downward Yet Again 
 2011-11-22November 22, 2011 - Third Quarter GDP Revised Downward 
 2011-11-11November 11, 2011 - Absolute Demand Index Plummets as Disposable Income Contracts 
 2011-10-27October 27, 2011 - GDP Improves Dramatically 
 2011-10-12October 12, 2011 - What's Going On? 
 2011-09-29September 29, 2011 - BEA Adjusts Second Quarter GDP Growth Rate Upward 
 2011-09-27September 27, 2011 - Chart Updates 
 2011-09-16September 16, 2011 - Data Update and the Sticky Jobs Situation 
 2011-09-09September 9, 2011 - Persistent Questions 
 2011-08-30August 30, 2011 - Has the BEA Already Documented the Second Dip? 
 2011-08-26August 26, 2011 - BEA Lowers Second Quarter GDP Growth Rate to Below 1% 
 2011-08-24August 24, 2011 - Update on Our Indexes 
 2011-08-15August 15, 2011 - Daily Growth Index Surge Continues; But Why? 
 2011-08-05August 5, 2011 - Special Update: Daily Growth Index Breaks Positive 
 2011-08-04August 4, 2011 - The BEA Revisions Revisited 
 2011-08-02August 2, 2011 - New Index & Housing Data 
 2011-07-29July 29, 2011 - BEA Reports 1Q-2011 and "Great Recession" Far Worse Than We Were Previously Told 
 2011-07-23July 23, 2011 - Unexpected Extremes & Mussolini Revisited 
 2011-07-16July 16, 2011 - Weighted Composite Index Continues to Strengthen 
 2011-07-09July 9, 2011 - Continuing Contraction Moderation; Shakespeare's Stimulating Idea 
 2011-07-02July 2, 2011 - Upturn in Daily Growth Index; Stimulating Despite Demographic Dilemmas 
 2011-06-24June 24, 2011 - The BEA's Third (and "Final") Estimate of First Quarter 2011 GDP 
 2011-06-21June 21, 2011 - Updating the Impact of Strategic Defaults 
 2011-06-15June 15, 2011 - Keeping Perspective and Strangulation by Regulation 
 2011-06-05June 5, 2011 - Bottom Bouncing and Scholarly Debt End-Games 
 2011-05-26May 26, 2011 - The BEA's Second Estimate of First Quarter 2011 GDP 
 2011-05-20May 20, 2011 - A Pause in the Ongoing Contraction; Incorporating Debt/GDP End-Games 
 2011-05-14May 14, 2011 - Continued Weakness in Consumer Demand; Unthinkable De-Financialization 
 2011-05-05May 5, 2011 - Resumed Downturns, Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence 
 2011-04-29April 29, 2011 - Bottoming at New Record Lows, Plus Debt/GDP End-Games via Insurrection 
 2011-04-28April 28, 2011 - The BEA's Advance Estimate of First Quarter 2011 GDP 
 2011-04-21April 21, 2011 - Making Sense of Our Indices, Plus Regime Changing Debt/GDP End-Games 
 2011-04-16April 16, 2011 - New Records and "Unthinkable" Sovereign Debt End-Games 
 2011-04-12April 12, 2011 - Updated Charts and Mr. Bernanke's Dilemma 
 2011-04-10April 10, 2011 - Retail Sales and Credit Expansions 
 2011-04-05April 5, 2011 - Automotive Euphoria; Sovereign Debt End-Games 
 2011-03-31March 31, 2011 - Continued Weakness; Divergences Revisited 
 2011-03-25March 25, 2011 - The BEA's Third Estimate of Fourth Quarter 2010 GDP 
 2011-03-23March 23, 2011 - Data Update; Sendai and Japan's Wealth -vs- GDP 
 2011-03-22March 22, 2011 - News and the Consumer, Reflections on Chernobyl and the Economy 
 2011-03-19March 19, 2011 - News and the Consumer, Bad Instruments and Chernobyl 
 2011-03-13March 13, 2011 - Glaring Disconnects and Tsunami Riding Black Swans 
 2011-02-25February 25, 2011 - Inside the BEA's New Lower Estimate of 4Q-2010 GDP Growth 
 2011-02-23February 23, 2011 - Recent Downturns in Our Indexes & the Fallacy Revisited 
 2011-02-16February 16, 2011 - Our Current Outlook and Bastiat's Broken Window 
 2011-02-09February 9, 2011 - An Update Plus Mid February Odds and Ends 
 2011-02-07February 7, 2011 - Measuring the Impact of "Strategic Defaults" and Mortgage Delinquencies on Consumer Spending 
 2011-02-02February 2, 2011 - Answering More Questions about the Q4-2010 GDP Report (Ad Nauseam) 
 2011-01-30January 30, 2011 - More Thoughts on the BEA's "Advance Estimate" for 4Q-2010 
 2011-01-29January 29, 2011 - What the BEA's Advance Estimate of Fourth Quarter 2010 GDP Was Really Telling Us 
 2011-01-12January 12, 2011 - Reflecting Back on 2010 
 2011-01-10January 10, 2011 - Lessons from 2010 
 2010-12-29December 29, 2010 - Looking Back at Holiday Sales and the BEA's Third Estimate for Q3-2010 
 2010-12-14December 14, 2010 - Feeding the Holiday Sales Frenzy While Maintaining Perspective 
 2010-12-07December 7, 2010 - Retail Updates, The Full Economy & GDP Revisited 
 2010-12-01December 1, 2010 - "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" 
 2010-11-23November 23, 2010 - First Revision to the Third Quarter GDP 
 2010-11-22November 22, 2010 - Continued Modest Improvements in Our Weighted Composite Index 
 2010-11-14November 14, 2010 - What Does the Bottom in the Daily Growth Index Mean? 
 2010-11-09November 9, 2010 - Daily Growth Index Shows Signs of Bottom Forming 
 2010-11-07November 7, 2010 - Revisiting the Character of the "Great Recession" 
 2010-10-31October 31, 2010 - The End of Political "FUD" Approaches 
 2010-10-29October 29, 2010 - Inside the Third Quarter GDP Release 
 2010-10-25October 25, 2010 - Current Contraction Surpasses "Great Recession" 
 2010-10-24October 24, 2010 - The U.S. Census Bureau's Retail Sales Report 
 2010-10-17October 17, 2010 - Political "FUD" and the Consumer Psyche 
 2010-10-10October 10, 2010 - Daily Growth Index Sets Record Low and Duration Marks 
 2010-10-05October 5, 2010 - Inside the September GDP Revisions 
 2010-10-03October 3, 2010 - Weakening Weighted Composite Pulls Daily Growth Index to All-Time Low 
 2010-09-26September 26, 2010 - The Diverging GDP 
 2010-09-22September 22, 2010 - NBER: Double Dip or Banana Split? 
 2010-09-20September 20, 2010 - Thoughts on the Recent "Bottom" in our Weighted Composite Index 
 2010-09-18September 18, 2010 - Has the Bottom Been Reached? 
 2010-09-11September 11, 2010 - The Big Scoop and Housing 
 2010-09-02September 2, 2010 - Autos, Personal Finance, and Refinancing 
 2010-09-01September 1, 2010 - Viewing the "Great Recession" in Hi-Def 
 2010-08-30August 30, 2010 - Taking a Closer Look at the "Great Recession" 
 2010-08-28August 28, 2010 - Inside the BEA's Latest GDP Numbers 
 2010-08-22August 22, 2010 - 75 Days of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt 
 2010-08-20August 20, 2010 - Politics and the Economy; Cause and Effect 


Links



HomeHistoryAutomotiveEntertainmentFinancialHealthHouseholdHousingRecreationRetailTechnologyTravelFAQsDownloadsMembershipContactAbout


Consumer Metrics Institute Presentation Series:
Economic Data for the 21st Century - Part 1 (Duration 7:35)
 
Economic Data for the 21st Century - Part 2 (Duration 11:35)
 

Consumer Metrics Institute In The News:
DomainStats.io | Stats for millions of domains (02/01/2016)
 
TalkMarkets - Financial Content That is Customized, Optimized, Socialized (01/31/2016)
 
Index - Syndication (01/31/2016)
 
Follow the Money (01/30/2016)
 
Global Economic Intersection (01/30/2016)
 
UK interest in hybrid Libor is on the right track - Implode-Explode (01/13/2016)
 
Follow the Money (12/26/2015)
 
Global Economic Intersection (12/23/2015)
 
World’s Largest Professional Network | LinkedIn (12/01/2015)
 
World’s Largest Professional Network | LinkedIn (12/01/2015)
 
World’s Largest Professional Network | LinkedIn (12/01/2015)
 
Follow the Money (11/25/2015)
 
Before It's News | Alternative News | UFO | Beyond Science | True News| Prophecy News | People Powered News (09/30/2015)
 
The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter (08/27/2015)
 
Easynomics (06/22/2015)
 
bertpowers (06/22/2015)
 
The Wall Street Examiner (04/28/2015)
 
Phil's Stock World (03/21/2015)
 
Visual Discovery & Social Curation Network (01/19/2015)
 
Schnizzle (01/17/2015)
 
World's Largest Professional Network | LinkedIn (12/24/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/29/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/25/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/16/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/27/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/14/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/13/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/11/2014)
 
Best Review , Analysis and evaluation of website information (05/13/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (01/07/2014)
 
Phil's Stock World (11/01/2013)
 
World News (10/17/2013)
 
Safehaven.com (10/01/2013)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/12/2013)
 
FINANCIAL SENSE | Applying Common Sense to the Markets (06/27/2013)
 
SGTreport.com (06/26/2013)
 
Safehaven.com (06/26/2013)
 
DollarCollapse.com (06/26/2013)
 
MarketShadows - Investors Guide to the Galaxy (06/24/2013)
 
Elliott Wave Market Service | Independent. Clear. Simple. Precise. (06/01/2013)
 
Safehaven.com (05/31/2013)
 
Investment Watch (05/31/2013)
 
Phil's Stock World (05/30/2013)
 
World News (05/12/2013)
 
HotAir — Politics, Culture, Media, 2012, Breaking News from a conservative viewpoint (04/26/2013)
 
Financial Survival Network (03/01/2013)
 
silveristhenew | Silver as an investment (02/28/2013)
 
Phil's Stock World (02/28/2013)
 
Sense on Cents (01/03/2013)
 
401K, IRA, Annuity (Retirement) Investments & Portfolios (11/18/2012)
 
midtownrepublican.com (06/09/2012)
 
trimtabs.com (06/08/2012)
 
ZeroHedge (06/08/2012)
 
The Daily Capitalist (04/27/2012)
 
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis (04/27/2012)
 
bullfax.com (04/27/2012)
 
The Daily Capitalist (03/29/2012)
 
America's Economic Future (03/22/2012)
 
Phil's Stock World (02/24/2012)
 
Phil's Stock World (02/08/2012)
 
Sense on Cents (01/20/2012)
 
Phil's Stock World (01/20/2012)
 
Regator (12/08/2011)
 
Icliks Incoming (11/24/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (11/22/2011)
 
Safehaven.com (11/22/2011)
 
poorrichards blog (11/17/2011)
 
Zimbio (11/04/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (10/27/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (10/20/2011)
 
Mike Norman Economics (09/29/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/27/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/22/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/21/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/20/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/19/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/18/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/16/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/15/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/15/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/14/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/13/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/12/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/09/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/08/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/06/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (09/06/2011)
 
The Basis Point Blog (09/05/2011)
 
RPM Mortgage, Inc. - Dick Lepre (09/02/2011)
 
Decline of the Empire (08/31/2011)
 
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis (08/29/2011)
 
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis (08/18/2011)
 
Business Insider (08/16/2011)
 
ETF Digest (08/15/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/08/2011)
 
Wall Street Sector Selector (08/08/2011)
 
Advisor Perspectives (08/08/2011)
 
David Gratke (08/01/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (07/30/2011)
 
RPM Mortgage, Inc. - Dick Lepre (07/29/2011)
 
The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter (07/24/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (07/22/2011)
 
Phil's Stock World (07/12/2011)
 
America's Economic Future (06/27/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (06/09/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (06/08/2011)
 
Seeking Alpha (05/25/2011)
 
Credit Writedowns (05/17/2011)
 
AG MetalMiner (05/16/2011)
 
Business Insider (05/05/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (05/05/2011)
 
Seeking Alpha (04/13/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (04/05/2011)
 
Seeking Alpha (03/23/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (02/18/2011)
 
Minyanville (02/16/2011)
 
Seeking Alpha (02/14/2011)
 
RPM Mortgage, Inc. - Dick Lepre (02/04/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (01/24/2011)
 
Jesse's Cafe Americain (01/08/2011)
 
Sense on Cents (11/13/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (11/10/2010)
 
EconomicGreenfield (10/31/2010)
 
Decline of the Empire (10/29/2010)
 
The Motley Fool (10/28/2010)
 
The Automatic Earth (10/28/2010)
 
Business Insider (10/27/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (10/14/2010)
 
Pragmatic Capitalism (10/10/2010)
 
ZeroHedge (10/07/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (10/07/2010)
 
Tainted Alpha (10/06/2010)
 
The Automatic Earth (10/05/2010)
 
Bob English at EconomicPolicyJournal.com (10/04/2010)
 
Daneric's Elliott Waves (10/04/2010)
 
Pragmatic Capitalism (10/04/2010)
 
Business Insider (09/30/2010)
 
AG MetalMiner (09/29/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (09/28/2010)
 
The Automatic Earth (09/28/2010)
 
Business Insider (09/28/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (09/28/2010)
 
money.ninemsn.com.au (09/27/2010)
 
America's Economic Future (09/27/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (09/25/2010)
 
Jesse's Cafe Americain (09/21/2010)
 
The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter (09/21/2010)
 
Phil's Favorites (09/21/2010)
 
normxxx ruminates... (09/21/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (09/21/2010)
 
Credit Writedowns (09/21/2010)
 
Business Insider (09/20/2010)
 
tinyhedge.blogspot.com (09/19/2010)
 
normxxx ruminates... (09/14/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (09/14/2010)
 
Bob English at EconomicPolicyJournal.com (09/13/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (09/12/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (09/10/2010)
 
Business Insider (09/07/2010)
 
AG MetalMiner (09/07/2010)
 
Pragmatic Capitalism (09/01/2010)
 
ETF Digest (08/31/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (08/31/2010)
 
blogsforvictory.com (08/29/2010)
 
moneywatch.bnet.com (08/26/2010)
 
Business Insider (08/25/2010)
 
America's Economic Future (08/24/2010)
 
The Automatic Earth (08/23/2010)
 
DailyMarkets.com (08/23/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (08/23/2010)
 
Capitalogix (08/22/2010)
 
The Automatic Earth (08/21/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (08/20/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (08/17/2010)
 
Pragmatic Capitalism (08/17/2010)
 
Business Insider (08/17/2010)
 
Phil's Stock World (08/01/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (07/30/2010)
 
Tainted Alpha (07/30/2010)
 
rlslaw.calculatedcrunchnews.com (07/30/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (07/30/2010)
 
Benzinga (07/30/2010)
 
Decline of the Empire (07/29/2010)
 
Doug Ross @ Journal (07/29/2010)
 
Cara Community (07/28/2010)
 
jherbert.blogspot.com (07/27/2010)
 
Phil's Stock World (07/25/2010)
 
The Daily Capitalist (07/19/2010)
 
Happy Travails (07/17/2010)
 
RPM Mortgage, Inc. - Dick Lepre (07/16/2010)
 
business.financialpost.com (07/12/2010)
 
AdvisorAnalyst.com (07/12/2010)
 
The Motley Fool (07/12/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (07/10/2010)
 
Jesse's Cafe Americain (07/07/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (07/01/2010)
 
AG MetalMiner (07/01/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (06/30/2010)
 
ZeroHedge (06/30/2010)
 
econblogreview.blogspot.com (06/29/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (06/29/2010)
 
Pragmatic Capitalism (06/29/2010)
 
The Motley Fool (06/11/2010)
 
Bob English at EconomicPolicyJournal.com (06/10/2010)
 
markettalk.newswires-americas.com (06/06/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (06/06/2010)
 
The Market Oracle UK (06/05/2010)
 
Cara Community (06/04/2010)
 
Safehaven.com (06/04/2010)
 
www.reallibertymedia.com (06/03/2010)
 
Rebel Traders (06/03/2010)
 
AG MetalMiner (06/02/2010)
 
Pragmatic Capitalism (06/01/2010)
 
The Motley Fool (05/30/2010)
 
vimeo.com (05/18/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (05/10/2010)
 
biiwii.blogspot.com (05/05/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (05/05/2010)
 
Jesse's Cafe Americain (05/04/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (05/03/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (05/01/2010)
 
Rebel Traders (05/01/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (04/30/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (04/30/2010)
 
Economic Policy Journal (04/30/2010)
 
Decline of the Empire (04/29/2010)
 
thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com (04/28/2010)
 
the evil speculator (04/28/2010)
 
Safehaven.com (04/28/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (04/22/2010)
 
Wall Street Cheat Sheet (04/15/2010)
 
ZeroHedge (03/31/2010)
 
www.financialarmageddon.com (03/31/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (03/31/2010)
 
Contrarian Investors' Journal (03/30/2010)
 
Capitalogix (03/29/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (03/29/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (03/28/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (03/28/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (03/28/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (03/28/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (03/28/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (03/28/2010)
 
Seeking Alpha (03/26/2010)
 
Contrarian Investors' Journal (03/16/2010)
 
America's Economic Future (03/15/2010)
 
The Big Picture (03/15/2010)
 
marknoonan.opinioneditorial.com (02/28/2010)
 
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis (02/26/2010)
 
Credit Writedowns (02/03/2010)
 
Phil's Stock World (01/02/2010)
 
Phil's Stock World (01/02/2010)
 
Sense on Cents (10/10/1010)
 


Copyright ©2016 The Consumer Metrics Institute, Inc.