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"Bringing the measurements of critical economic activities into the twenty-first century by
mining tracking data for an understanding of what American consumers were doing yesterday."


Monthly Weighted Composite Consumer Leading Indicator for Past 48 Months



Monthly Weighted Composite Consumer Leading Indicator for Past 48 Months


Last 10 Monthly Index Values
Date:04/201405/201406/201407/201408/201409/201410/201411/201412/201401/2015
Value:94.2093.8793.4995.7897.1496.9695.4897.56100.2799.27


Daily Growth Index Past 60 Days


 Daily Growth Index Past 60 Days(1): 
 
Chart
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 Notes:
  (1) The daily values for the Consumer Metrics Institute's 91-day 'Trailing Quarter' Growth Index over the past 60 days. Please see our Frequently Asked Questions page for a more complete description of our Growth Index.


 


Daily Growth Index -vs- Full GDP Past 48 Months


 Growth Index -vs- Full GDP, Past 4 Years(2): 
 
Chart
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 Notes:
  (2) The Consumer Metrics Institute's 91-day 'Trailing Quarter' Growth Index -vs- BEA's Quarterly Full GDP Growth Rates over past 4 years. The quarterly GDP growth rates are shown as 3-month plateaus in the graph. The Consumer Metrics Institute's Growth Index is plotted as a monthly average.


 


BEA's "Real" GDP -vs- BPP Deflated "Nominal" GDP, Past 4 Years


 BEA "Real" GDP -vs- BPP Deflated "Nominal" GDP, Past 4 Years(3,4): 
 
Chart
(Click here for best resolution)
 
 Notes:
  (3) In the blue line above the BEA's nominal GDP has been deflated using the inflation rate measured by the Billion Prices Project (BPP) index.
  (4) Note that when deflating the line items in the GDP tables from the BEA it is important to treat the "nominal" import and export data as the effective net "real" data -- since there are no offsetting domestic transactions carrying the correspondingly inflated or deflated prices (i.e., the one-sided net impact of inflating imported commodities is "real" to the economy). The net consequences of inflating import prices may become material in times of substantial and sustained trade imbalances.


 


BEA's "Real" GDP -vs- BLS Deflated Per-Capita GDP, Past 4 Years


 BEA "Real" GDP -vs- BLS Deflated Per-Capita GDP, Past 4 Years(5): 
 
Chart
(Click here for best resolution)
 
 Notes:
  (5) Line items in the BEA's nominal GDP are deflated by either the Bureau of Labor Statistic's (BLS) CPI-U index or the BLS PPI index, and reported on a per-capita basis by using Census Bureau projected mid-quarter population data.


 


BEA's "Real" GDP -vs- BLS Deflated Per-Capita Disposable Income, Past 4 Years


 BEA "Real" GDP -vs- BLS Deflated Per-Capita Disposable Income, Past 4 Years(6): 
 
Chart
(Click here for best resolution)
 
 Notes:
  (6) Line items in the BEA's Disposable Personal Income report are deflated by the Bureau of Labor Statistic's (BLS) CPI-U index and reported on a per-capita basis by using Census Bureau projected mid-quarter population data.


 


BEA's "Real" GDP -vs- BLS Deflated Per-Capita Proprietors Income, Past 4 Years


 BEA "Real" GDP -vs- BLS Deflated Per-Capita Proprietor Income, Past 4 Years(7): 
 
Chart
(Click here for best resolution)
 
 Notes:
  (7) The Proprietors' income (with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) line from the BEA's Disposable Personal Income report are deflated by the Bureau of Labor Statistic's (BLS) CPI-U index and reported on a per-capita basis by using Census Bureau projected mid-quarter population data.


 

Commentary


     
  February 27, 2015 - BEA Revises 4th Quarter 2014 GDP Growth Downward to 2.18%:

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +2.18% annualized rate, down roughly a half percent (-0.46%) from the +2.64% previously reported and down -2.78% from the growth rate reported for the prior quarter.

The downward revisions were in several of its components: lower inventory growth removed -0.70% from the headline growth rate, slower consumer goods spending removed another -0.19%, and imports took yet another -0.19%.

Consumer services spending was revised upward +0.15%, and non-residential fixed investment was reported to be +0.34% higher than previously published.

Real annualized per capita disposable income was revised downward by -$33 (now reported to be $37,742 per annum). This is down $90 per year from the 4th quarter of 2012. The household savings rate improved +0.1% for the quarter to 4.7%.

As mentioned last month, plunging energy prices during the quarter were likely playing havoc with many of the numbers in this report. US "at the pump" gasoline prices fell 33% quarter-to-quarter -- pushing all consumer oriented inflation indexes firmly into negative territory. During the fourth quarter (i.e., from October through December) the seasonally adjusted CPI-U index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was solidly dis-inflationary at a -2.47% (annualized) rate, and the price index reported by the Billion Prices Project (BPP -- which arguably more fully reflected the "at the pump" impact on American households) was significantly more dis-inflationary, dropping a full -2.14% quarter-to-quarter (an astounding -8.30% annualized rate during the quarter).

Yet for this report the BEA still assumed a very mildly dis-inflationary annualized deflator of only -0.14%. The disparity between the BEA's and the BLS's "deflators" raises some serious consistency issues. Over reported inflation (or under reported dis-inflation) will result in a more pessimistic growth data, and if the BEA's "nominal" numbers were corrected for inflation using the line-item appropriate BLS CPI-U and PPI indexes, the economy would be reported to be growing at an implausibly high 6.52% annualized rate. Clearly the BEA's deflator is troubling, but using the more reasonable deflators from the BLS generates nonsensical growth rates when applied to the BEA's nominal data -- suggesting that the BEA's initial nominal data may be more overstated (or guesstimated) than reasonable deflators can handle.

Among the notable items in the report :

-- The headline contribution from consumer expenditures for goods was +1.01% (down -0.19% from the prior estimate).

-- The contribution made by consumer services spending to the headline increased to +1.82% (up +0.15% from the previous report). The combined consumer contribution to the headline number was 2.83%, down -0.04% from the prior estimate.

-- Commercial private fixed investments provided +0.71% of the headline number (up +0.34% from the previous report, but down -0.50% from the 1.21% in the 3rd quarter), and this drop was nearly all in heavy equipment (industrial and transportation). The reported growth came almost entirely from IT spending and intellectual property.

-- Inventories contributed +0.12% to the headline number (down a full -0.70% from the prior estimate).

-- Governmental spending removed -0.32% from the headline (up +0.08% from the previous report but down -1.12% from the 3rd quarter). As mentioned last month, the prior quarter's growth in Federal spending was in fact entirely spurious: spending pulled forward from the 4th quarter as a result of fiscal year-end budgetary maneuvers.

-- Exports are now reported to be contributing +0.42% to the headline growth rate (up +0.05% from the previous estimate).

-- Imports subtracted -1.58% from the headline number (down -1.74% from the prior quarter).

-- The annualized growth rate for the "real final sales of domestic product" is now reported to be +2.06% (down -2.93% from the prior quarter). This is the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy.

-- And as mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income was revised downward by -$33 per year. The new number represents an annualized growth rate of +2.95%. Real disposable income is still down -$90 per year from the fourth quarter of 2012 (before the FICA rates normalized) and it is up only +2.90% in total since the second quarter of 2008 -- a pathetic +0.44% annualized growth rate over the past 6 and a half years.




The Numbers, As Revised

As a quick reminder, the classic definition of the GDP can be summarized with the following equation :

GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government spending + (exports - imports)


or, as it is commonly expressed in algebraic shorthand :

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)


In the new report the values for that equation (total dollars, percentage of the total GDP, and contribution to the final percentage growth number) are as follows :

GDP Components Table

Total GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
Annual $ (trillions) $17.7 = $12.1 + $3.0 + $3.2 + $-0.6
% of GDP 100.0% = 68.4% + 16.7% + 18.0% + -3.1%
Contribution to GDP Growth % 2.18% = 2.83% + 0.83% + -0.32% + -1.16%


The quarter-to-quarter changes in the contributions that various components make to the overall GDP can be best understood from the table below, which breaks out the component contributions in more detail and over time. In the table below we have split the "C" component into goods and services, split the "I" component into fixed investment and inventories, separated exports from imports, added a line for the BEA's "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product" and listed the quarters in columns with the most current to the left :

Quarterly Changes in % Contributions to GDP

4Q-2014 3Q-2014 2Q-2014 1Q-2014 4Q-2013 3Q-2013 2Q-2013 1Q-2013 4Q-2012 3Q-2012 2Q-2012 1Q-2012 4Q-2011 3Q-2011 2Q-2011 1Q-2011
Total GDP Growth 2.18% 4.96% 4.59% -2.11% 3.50% 4.51% 1.77% 2.75% 0.06% 2.48% 1.62% 2.25% 4.59% 0.84% 2.94% -1.53%
Consumer Goods 1.01% 1.06% 1.33% 0.23% 0.83% 0.80% 0.30% 1.35% 0.67% 0.74% 0.29% 1.06% 0.90% 0.20% -0.18% 0.66%
Consumer Services 1.82% 1.15% 0.42% 0.60% 1.69% 0.59% 0.93% 1.11% 0.65% 0.58% 0.57% 0.81% 0.04% 1.00% 0.75% 0.72%
Fixed Investment 0.71% 1.21% 1.45% 0.03% 0.95% 1.01% 0.74% 0.42% 0.96% 0.45% 0.61% 1.24% 1.36% 2.25% 1.10% -0.11%
Inventories 0.12% -0.03% 1.42% -1.16% -0.34% 1.49% 0.30% 0.70% -1.80% -0.19% 0.27% -0.20% 2.80% -2.10% 1.04% -0.96%
Government -0.32% 0.80% 0.31% -0.15% -0.71% 0.04% 0.04% -0.75% -1.20% 0.52% -0.08% -0.56% -0.31% -0.52% -0.08% -1.60%
Exports 0.42% 0.61% 1.43% -1.30% 1.30% 0.67% 0.82% -0.12% 0.19% 0.28% 0.64% 0.19% 0.56% 0.57% 0.82% 0.27%
Imports -1.58% 0.16% -1.77% -0.36% -0.22% -0.09% -1.36% 0.04% 0.59% 0.10% -0.68% -0.29% -0.76% -0.56% -0.51% -0.51%
Real Final Sales 2.06% 4.99% 3.17% -0.95% 3.84% 3.02% 1.47% 2.05% 1.86% 2.67% 1.35% 2.45% 1.79% 2.94% 1.90% -0.57%





Summary and Commentary

The revisions in this report are relatively minor, and probably should be considered just "noise" in the context of an economy with a slowing growth rate. Among our observations about this report are:

-- At face value, the +2.06% "bottom line" Real Final Sales growth rate seems plausible for the US economy during the fourth quarter of 2014.

-- The reported strong growth in fixed investment occurred primarily in two areas: IT spending and the recently added (and very fuzzy) arena of "intellectual property."

-- Rampant or rouge deflators are likely as much a factor in the headline number as real growth.

Looking forward, we are often told that "bad weather" is a major factor in first quarter economic data -- keeping shoppers home and suppressing construction work. Given the quarter-to-quarter weakening already evident in the GDP numbers, the first quarter probably wasn't going to be particularly pleasant even before the recent record snowfalls. It could now be getting just as nasty as the weather itself.
 
     
     
  January 30, 2015 - BEA Estimates 4th Quarter 2014 GDP Growth to be 2.64%:

In their first estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +2.64% annualized rate, down -2.32% from the much celebrated +4.96% growth rate reported for the prior quarter.

The growth was nearly halved by substantial changes in a number of its components: imports took -1.55% from the quarter's growth rate, exports pulled another -0.24% from the number, contracting governmental spending took another -1.20% off the top, and plunging fixed investment removed yet another -0.84% from the headline.

Inventories and consumer spending were the only bright spots. Inventory growth added +0.85% to the headline. Increased spending on goods added +0.14% to the headline number, while spending on household services added 0.52% to the headline.

The increased consumer spending came from both improved disposable income and reduced savings. Households had an additional $279 in real annualized per capita disposable income (now reported to be $37,775 per annum). This is still down $94 per year from the 4th quarter of 2012. The household savings rate dropped another -0.1% for the quarter to 4.6%.

As mentioned last quarter, plunging energy prices are likely playing havoc with many of the numbers in this report. US "at the pump" gasoline prices fell 33% quarter-to-quarter -- pushing all consumer oriented inflation indexes firmly into negative territory. During the fourth quarter (i.e., from October through December) the seasonally adjusted CPI-U index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was solidly dis-inflationary at a -2.47% (annualized) rate, and the price index reported by the Billion Prices Project (BPP -- which arguably more fully reflected the "at the pump" impact on American households) was significantly more dis-inflationary, dropping a full -2.14% quarter-to-quarter (an astounding -8.30% annualized rate during the quarter).

Yet for this report the BEA still assumed a very mildly dis-inflationary annualized deflator of only -0.09%. The disparity between the BEA's and the BLS's "deflators" raises some serious consistency issues. Over reported inflation (or under reported dis-inflation) will result in a more pessimistic growth data, and if the BEA's "nominal" numbers were corrected for inflation using the line-item appropriate BLS CPI-U and PPI indexes, the economy would be reported to be growing at an implausibly high 7.17% annualized rate. Clearly the BEA's deflator is troubling, but using the more reasonable deflators from the BLS generates nonsensical growth rates when applied to the BEA's nominal data -- suggesting that the BEA's initial nominal data may be more overstated (or guesstimated) than reasonable deflators can handle.

Among the notable items in the report :

-- The headline contribution from consumer expenditures for goods was +1.20% (up +0.14% from the prior quarter).

-- The contribution made by consumer services spending to the headline surged to +1.67% (up +0.52% from the last quarter). Housing, utilities and spending on recreational services provided the boost, while a drop in non-profit spending provided a partial offset. The combined consumer contribution to the headline number by consumers was 2.87%, up +0.66% from the prior quarter.

-- Commercial private fixed investments provided only +0.37% of the headline number (down -0.84% from the 1.21% in the 3rd quarter), and this drop was nearly all in heavy equipment (industrial and transportation). The reported growth came almost entirely from IT spending.

-- Inventories contributed +0.82% to the headline number (up a full +0.85% from the prior quarter). This line item is roughly zero-sum over longer time spans, and this gain can be expected to reverse over the coming quarters.

-- As we expected, governmental spending removed -0.40% from the headline (down -1.20% from the 3rd quarter). The prior quarter's growth in Federal spending was in fact entirely spurious: spending pulled forward from the 4th quarter as a result of fiscal year-end budgetary maneuvers. For all of the BEA's other highly opaque "seasonal adjustments," they seem to completely fail to correct for seasonal anomalies caused by Federal fiscal year-end budgetary shenanigans (although cynics might point out that the failure to seasonally adjust for those shenanigans consistently provides spurious growth just prior to November elections that isn't reversed out until after the subsequent "State of the Union" address).

-- Exports are now reported to be contributing +0.37% to the headline growth rate (down -0.24% from the third quarter).

-- Imports subtracted -1.39% from the headline number (down -1.55% from the prior quarter). The prior quarter's imports numbers are among those that would be most susceptible to price related distortions.

-- The annualized growth rate for the "real final sales of domestic product" is now reported to be only +1.82% (down -3.17% from the prior quarter). This is the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy, and that "bottom line" rate lost nearly two-thirds of its prior quarter's value.

-- And as mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income was reported to have grown by $279 per year. The new number represents an annualized growth rate of 3.01%. Real disposable income is still down -$94 per year from the fourth quarter of 2012 (before the FICA rates normalized) and it is up only 2.99% in total since the second quarter of 2008 -- a pathetic 0.45% annualized growth rate over the past 6 and a half years.




The Numbers

As a quick reminder, the classic definition of the GDP can be summarized with the following equation :

GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government spending + (exports - imports)


or, as it is commonly expressed in algebraic shorthand :

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)


In the new report the values for that equation (total dollars, percentage of the total GDP, and contribution to the final percentage growth number) are as follows :

GDP Components Table

Total GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
Annual $ (trillions) $17.7 = $12.1 + $3.0 + $3.2 + $-0.5
% of GDP 100.0% = 68.4% + 16.7% + 18.0% + -3.1%
Contribution to GDP Growth % 2.64% = 2.87% + 1.19% + -0.40% + -1.02%


The quarter-to-quarter changes in the contributions that various components make to the overall GDP can be best understood from the table below, which breaks out the component contributions in more detail and over time. In the table below we have split the "C" component into goods and services, split the "I" component into fixed investment and inventories, separated exports from imports, added a line for the BEA's "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product" and listed the quarters in columns with the most current to the left :

Quarterly Changes in % Contributions to GDP

4Q-2014 3Q-2014 2Q-2014 1Q-2014 4Q-2013 3Q-2013 2Q-2013 1Q-2013 4Q-2012 3Q-2012 2Q-2012 1Q-2012 4Q-2011 3Q-2011 2Q-2011 1Q-2011
Total GDP Growth 2.64% 4.96% 4.59% -2.11% 3.50% 4.51% 1.77% 2.75% 0.06% 2.48% 1.62% 2.25% 4.59% 0.84% 2.94% -1.53%
Consumer Goods 1.20% 1.06% 1.33% 0.23% 0.83% 0.80% 0.30% 1.35% 0.67% 0.74% 0.29% 1.06% 0.90% 0.20% -0.18% 0.66%
Consumer Services 1.67% 1.15% 0.42% 0.60% 1.69% 0.59% 0.93% 1.11% 0.65% 0.58% 0.57% 0.81% 0.04% 1.00% 0.75% 0.72%
Fixed Investment 0.37% 1.21% 1.45% 0.03% 0.95% 1.01% 0.74% 0.42% 0.96% 0.45% 0.61% 1.24% 1.36% 2.25% 1.10% -0.11%
Inventories 0.82% -0.03% 1.42% -1.16% -0.34% 1.49% 0.30% 0.70% -1.80% -0.19% 0.27% -0.20% 2.80% -2.10% 1.04% -0.96%
Government -0.40% 0.80% 0.31% -0.15% -0.71% 0.04% 0.04% -0.75% -1.20% 0.52% -0.08% -0.56% -0.31% -0.52% -0.08% -1.60%
Exports 0.37% 0.61% 1.43% -1.30% 1.30% 0.67% 0.82% -0.12% 0.19% 0.28% 0.64% 0.19% 0.56% 0.57% 0.82% 0.27%
Imports -1.39% 0.16% -1.77% -0.36% -0.22% -0.09% -1.36% 0.04% 0.59% 0.10% -0.68% -0.29% -0.76% -0.56% -0.51% -0.51%
Real Final Sales 1.82% 4.99% 3.17% -0.95% 3.84% 3.02% 1.47% 2.05% 1.86% 2.67% 1.35% 2.45% 1.79% 2.94% 1.90% -0.57%





Summary and Commentary

Well, the 5% growth was nice while it lasted. And now we know why the Fed is disinclined to remove stimulus by "normalizing" interest rates.

Among our take-aways from this report are:

-- For once, and at face value, the +1.82% "bottom line" Real Final Sales growth rate (corrected for inventory changes) seems both plausible and feels about right for this economy.

-- Looking back, this reports tells us that the 5% growth in the third quarter probably had more than its share of smoke and mirrors -- including the gratuitous Federal fiscal year end shenanigans, the political gift that keeps on giving.

-- And we hate to get technical, but we are truly troubled by consistency and transparency issues raised by this report. We have been critical of the BEA's deflators many times before, suspecting that under reported inflation was artificially boosting the headline numbers. Now that the situation has completely reversed (with the BEA under reporting price DIS-inflation), we are even more troubled by an inability to derive meaningful or plausible alternate growth rates via BLS provided deflators. We understand that the BEA and BLS price tracking methodologies are vastly different, and comparing their deflators has serious "apples and oranges" issues. Nevertheless, however correct and consistent the BEA's -0.09% quarterly deflator is from their methodology standpoint, it is patently absurd from a real-world perspective. Unfortunately, that absurd deflator generates a reasonable growth number when applied against the BEA's nominal data. The mathematical implication is that the nominal data is just as absurd as the -0.09% deflator.

Clearly something has been pulled out of a hat. We just can't tell what.
 
     
     
  December 23, 2014 - BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2014 GDP Growth Upwards Again to 4.96% Annualized Rate:

In their third estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at an astounding +4.96% annualized rate, up an additional +1.07% from their prior estimate for the 3rd quarter and now up +0.37% from the already very healthy 4.59% annualized growth rate registered during the second quarter.

This revision contained improved numbers for nearly every segment of the economy. The largest gains from the previous report were recorded in consumer expenditures for services (+0.61%, mostly in healthcare) and corporate non-residential investment (+0.24%, primarily in structures and intellectual property). Consumer expenditures for goods and inventories each added another +0.09% to the headline number, while governmental spending and imports added +0.04% each. Only exports weakened, softening their contribution to the headline number by -0.04% (offsetting the positive contribution from imports).

Despite the increased consumer spending, households actually lost disposable income in this revision -- losing yet another $29 in real annualized per capita disposable income (now reported to be $37,496 per annum). This is now down a full $373 per year from the 4th quarter of 2012. The healthcare spending growth reported above came exclusively from reduced household savings, which dropped yet another -0.3% percent in this report.

As mentioned last month, softening energy prices play a major role in this report, since during the 3rd quarter dollar-based energy prices were plunging (and have even accelerated their dive since). US "at the pump" gasoline prices fell 9.8% quarter-to-quarter (a -33.8% annualized rate) -- pushing most consumer oriented inflation indexes into negative territory. During the third quarter (i.e., from July through September) the seasonally adjusted CPI-U index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was actually mildly dis-inflationary at a -0.10% (annualized) rate, and the price index reported by the Billion Prices Project (BPP -- which arguably reflected the real experiences of American households) was slightly more dis-inflationary at -0.18% (annualized).

Yet for this report the BEA still assumed an effective positive annualized quarterly inflation of 1.39%. Over reported inflation will result in a more pessimistic growth data, and if the BEA's numbers were corrected for inflation using the appropriate BLS CPI-U and PPI indexes the economy would be reported to be growing at an astronomical 6.52% annualized rate. If we were to use just the BPP data to adjust for inflation, the quarter's growth rate would have been growing even faster, at a 6.60% annualized rate.

Among the notable items in the report :

-- The headline contribution from consumer expenditures for goods was +1.06% (up +0.09% from the previous estimate, but down -0.27% from the prior quarter).

-- The contribution made by consumer services spending to the headline surged to +1.15% (up +0.61% from the previous report and +0.73% from the 0.42% reported last quarter). The combined consumer contribution to the headline number by consumers was 2.21%, up +0.46% from the prior quarter.

-- Commercial private fixed investments provided +1.21% of the headline number (down -0.24% from the 1.45% in the 2nd quarter), and this continued positive growth is nearly all non-residential. The increases shown in this report came almost equally from spending on structures and the recently added intellectual property category.

-- Inventories subtracted only -0.03% from the headline number (and down a full -1.45% from the prior quarter).

-- Governmental spending added +0.80% to the headline. The growth in Federal spending was probably spending pulled forward from the 4th quarter as a result of fiscal year-end budgetary maneuvers -- and is therefore also likely to reverse in 4Q-2014.

-- Exports are now reported to be adding 0.61% to the headline growth rate (down -0.04% from the previous estimate and -0.82% from the second quarter).

-- Imports added +0.16% to the headline number (up +0.04% from the previous estimate, and up +1.93% from the prior quarter).

-- The annualized growth rate for the "real final sales of domestic product" is now reported to be 4.99% (up +0.98% from the previous report). This is the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy, and it is slightly higher than the headline number because of the mildly shrinking inventories.

-- And as mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income was revised downward by $29 per year. The new number represents an annualized growth rate of 1.25%. Real disposable income is still down a material -$373 per year from the fourth quarter of 2012 (before the FICA rates normalized) and it is up only 2.23% in total since the second quarter of 2008 -- a miserable 0.35% annualized growth rate over the past 6 and a quarter years.




The Numbers, As Revised

As a quick reminder, the classic definition of the GDP can be summarized with the following equation :

GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government spending + (exports - imports)


or, as it is commonly expressed in algebraic shorthand :

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)


In the new report the values for that equation (total dollars, percentage of the total GDP, and contribution to the final percentage growth number) are as follows :

GDP Components Table

Total GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
Annual $ (trillions) $17.6 = $12.0 + $2.9 + $3.2 + $-0.5
% of GDP 100.0% = 68.2% + 16.5% + 18.2% + -2.9%
Contribution to GDP Growth % 4.96% = 2.21% + 1.18% + 0.80% + 0.77%


The quarter-to-quarter changes in the contributions that various components make to the overall GDP can be best understood from the table below, which breaks out the component contributions in more detail and over time. In the table below we have split the "C" component into goods and services, split the "I" component into fixed investment and inventories, separated exports from imports, added a line for the BEA's "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product" and listed the quarters in columns with the most current to the left :

Quarterly Changes in % Contributions to GDP

3Q-2014 2Q-2014 1Q-2014 4Q-2013 3Q-2013 2Q-2013 1Q-2013 4Q-2012 3Q-2012 2Q-2012 1Q-2012 4Q-2011 3Q-2011 2Q-2011 1Q-2011
Total GDP Growth 4.96% 4.59% -2.11% 3.50% 4.51% 1.77% 2.75% 0.06% 2.48% 1.62% 2.25% 4.59% 0.84% 2.94% -1.53%
Consumer Goods 1.06% 1.33% 0.23% 0.83% 0.80% 0.30% 1.35% 0.67% 0.74% 0.29% 1.06% 0.90% 0.20% -0.18% 0.66%
Consumer Services 1.15% 0.42% 0.60% 1.69% 0.59% 0.93% 1.11% 0.65% 0.58% 0.57% 0.81% 0.04% 1.00% 0.75% 0.72%
Fixed Investment 1.21% 1.45% 0.03% 0.95% 1.01% 0.74% 0.42% 0.96% 0.45% 0.61% 1.24% 1.36% 2.25% 1.10% -0.11%
Inventories -0.03% 1.42% -1.16% -0.34% 1.49% 0.30% 0.70% -1.80% -0.19% 0.27% -0.20% 2.80% -2.10% 1.04% -0.96%
Government 0.80% 0.31% -0.15% -0.71% 0.04% 0.04% -0.75% -1.20% 0.52% -0.08% -0.56% -0.31% -0.52% -0.08% -1.60%
Exports 0.61% 1.43% -1.30% 1.30% 0.67% 0.82% -0.12% 0.19% 0.28% 0.64% 0.19% 0.56% 0.57% 0.82% 0.27%
Imports 0.16% -1.77% -0.36% -0.22% -0.09% -1.36% 0.04% 0.59% 0.10% -0.68% -0.29% -0.76% -0.56% -0.51% -0.51%
Real Final Sales 4.99% 3.17% -0.95% 3.84% 3.02% 1.47% 2.05% 1.86% 2.67% 1.35% 2.45% 1.79% 2.94% 1.90% -0.57%





Summary and Commentary

The puzzle in these numbers lies in the huge discrepancy between the reported face value of the economy's growth (nearly 5% per annum, sustained for at least two quarters) and the continued public proclamations from the central bankers that the economy requires further (effectively indefinite) stimulus in the form of extraordinarily low interest rates.

There are several points to ponder:

-- What does the Federal Reserve know that is either missed by (or not yet captured in) these numbers?

-- Is increased consumer spending on non-discretionary healthcare (at the cost of raiding household savings) really good for the overall economy? And if real household disposable income continues to shrink, who exactly is benefiting from the reported growth?

-- Since no other major developed country has credible growth data anywhere near the 5% ball park, how can US economic growth remain a statistical outlier over an extended period of time?

There are at lease a few obvious and plausible answers to the above questions:

-- The Fed knows that these numbers misrepresent the true health of the economy -- either now or in the near future.

-- US households (especially at the median) are not participating meaningfully in the reported growth -- which is probably happening almost exclusively on the far side of the "wealth divide."

-- The US is benefiting globally (in an almost predatory fashion) from having the strongest of currencies and the safest of investment havens.

Unfortunately, the latter two answers carry with them destabilizing social consequences that are far worse (internally and externally) than the mere possibility of yet another economic slowdown -- currently utterly unforeseen by the BEA.

From our perspective we actually hope that the Fed knows far more than is evident in this latest happy BEA report.
 
     
     
  November 25, 2014 - BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2014 GDP Growth Upwards to 3.89% Annualized Rate:

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +3.89% annualized rate, up +0.35% from their first estimate for the 3rd quarter but still down some -0.70% from the 4.59% annualized growth rate registered during the second quarter.

The modest improvement in the headline number masks substantial changes in the reported sources of the annualized growth. The previously reported significant inventory draw-down almost vanished completely (dropping to a mere -0.12% impact on the headline number). Improving fixed investments added +0.23% to the headline, with nearly all of that improvement from spending for commercial equipment. Consumer spending for goods was also reported to be growing about a quarter of a percent faster (+0.27%) in this report, while consumer spending for services was essentially unchanged (+0.02%).

Offsetting those upside revisions was a significant erosion in the previously reported export growth, which subtracted -0.38% from the headline. The contribution from imports in the headline number also weakened, taking the annualized growth down another -0.17%. Governmental spending was also revised down slightly, knocking another -0.07% from the headline. Nearly all of that downward revision to governmental spending was from reduced state and local investment in infrastructure.

Despite the increased consumer spending, households actually took a disposable income hit in this revision -- losing $146 in annualized per capita disposable income (now reported to be $37,525 per annum). This is down $344 per year from the 4th quarter of 2012. The spending growth reported above came exclusively from reduced household savings, which dropped a full half percent in this report.

As mentioned last month, softening energy prices play a major role in this report, since during the 3rd quarter dollar-based energy prices were plunging (and have continued their dive since). US "at the pump" gasoline prices fell from $3.68 per gallon to $3.32 during the quarter, a 9.8% quarter-to-quarter decline and a -33.8% annualized rate -- pushing most consumer oriented inflation indexes into negative territory. During the third quarter (i.e., from July through September) the seasonally adjusted CPI-U index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was actually mildly dis-inflationary at a -0.10% (annualized) rate, and the price index reported by the Billion Prices Project (BPP -- which arguably reflected the real experiences of American households) was slightly more dis-inflationary at -0.18% (annualized).

Yet for this report the BEA effectively assumed a positive annualized quarterly inflation of 1.40%. Over reported inflation will result in a more pessimistic growth data, and if the BEA's numbers were corrected for inflation using the appropriate BLS CPI-U and PPI indexes the economy would be reported to be growing at a spectacular 5.42% annualized rate. If we were to use just the BPP data to adjust for inflation, the quarter's growth rate would have been an astounding 5.52% annualized rate.

Among the notable items in the report :

-- The headline contribution of consumer expenditures for goods was 0.97% (up +0.27% from the previous estimate, but down -0.36% from the prior quarter).

-- The contribution made by consumer services spending increased to 0.54% (up +0.02 from the previous report and +0.12% from the 0.42% reported last quarter). The combined consumer contribution to the headline number by consumers was 1.51%, down -0.24% from the prior quarter.

-- Commercial private fixed investments provided +0.97% of the headline number (down -0.48% from the 1.45% in the 2nd quarter), and this continued positive growth is nearly all non-residential.

-- Inventories subtracted only -0.12% from the headline number (up +0.45% from the -0.57% previously reported).

-- Governmental spending added +0.76% to the headline. The improvement was nearly all at a Federal level, in spending on "consumption expenditures". The growth of state and local spending softened -0.29% relative to the 2nd quarter. The growth in Federal spending was likely spending pulled forward from the 4th quarter as a result of fiscal year-end budgetary maneuvers -- and is therefore also likely to reverse in 4Q-2014.

-- Exports are now reported to be adding 0.65% to the headline growth rate (down -0.38% from the first estimate and -0.78% from the second quarter).

-- Imports added +0.12% to the headline number (down -0.17% from the previous estimate, but up +1.89% from the prior quarter). The combined revisions in the foreign trade data removed over a half percent from the previous estimate's headline.

-- The annualized growth rate for the "real final sales of domestic product" is now reported to be 4.01% (down -0.10% from the previous report). This is the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy, and it is slightly higher than the headline number because of the mildly shrinking inventories.

-- And as mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income was revised downward by $146 per year, halving the previously reported quarter-to-quarter increase. The new number represents an annualized growth rate of 1.56%. Real disposable income is still down a material -$344 per year from the fourth quarter of 2012 (before the FICA rates normalized) and it is up only 2.31% in total since the second quarter of 2008 -- a miserable 0.37% annualized growth rate over the past 6 and a quarter years.




The Numbers, As Revised

As a quick reminder, the classic definition of the GDP can be summarized with the following equation :

GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government spending + (exports - imports)


or, as it is commonly expressed in algebraic shorthand :

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)


In the new report the values for that equation (total dollars, percentage of the total GDP, and contribution to the final percentage growth number) are as follows :

GDP Components Table

Total GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
Annual $ (trillions) $17.6 = $12.0 + $2.9 + $3.2 + $-0.5
% of GDP 100.0% = 68.2% + 16.5% + 18.3% + -2.9%
Contribution to GDP Growth % 3.89% = 1.51% + 0.85% + 0.76% + 0.77%


The quarter-to-quarter changes in the contributions that various components make to the overall GDP can be best understood from the table below, which breaks out the component contributions in more detail and over time. In the table below we have split the "C" component into goods and services, split the "I" component into fixed investment and inventories, separated exports from imports, added a line for the BEA's "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product" and listed the quarters in columns with the most current to the left :

Quarterly Changes in % Contributions to GDP

3Q-2014 2Q-2014 1Q-2014 4Q-2013 3Q-2013 2Q-2013 1Q-2013 4Q-2012 3Q-2012 2Q-2012 1Q-2012 4Q-2011 3Q-2011 2Q-2011 1Q-2011
Total GDP Growth 3.89% 4.59% -2.11% 3.50% 4.51% 1.77% 2.75% 0.06% 2.48% 1.62% 2.25% 4.59% 0.84% 2.94% -1.53%
Consumer Goods 0.97% 1.33% 0.23% 0.83% 0.80% 0.30% 1.35% 0.67% 0.74% 0.29% 1.06% 0.90% 0.20% -0.18% 0.66%
Consumer Services 0.54% 0.42% 0.60% 1.69% 0.59% 0.93% 1.11% 0.65% 0.58% 0.57% 0.81% 0.04% 1.00% 0.75% 0.72%
Fixed Investment 0.97% 1.45% 0.03% 0.95% 1.01% 0.74% 0.42% 0.96% 0.45% 0.61% 1.24% 1.36% 2.25% 1.10% -0.11%
Inventories -0.12% 1.42% -1.16% -0.34% 1.49% 0.30% 0.70% -1.80% -0.19% 0.27% -0.20% 2.80% -2.10% 1.04% -0.96%
Government 0.76% 0.31% -0.15% -0.71% 0.04% 0.04% -0.75% -1.20% 0.52% -0.08% -0.56% -0.31% -0.52% -0.08% -1.60%
Exports 0.65% 1.43% -1.30% 1.30% 0.67% 0.82% -0.12% 0.19% 0.28% 0.64% 0.19% 0.56% 0.57% 0.82% 0.27%
Imports 0.12% -1.77% -0.36% -0.22% -0.09% -1.36% 0.04% 0.59% 0.10% -0.68% -0.29% -0.76% -0.56% -0.51% -0.51%
Real Final Sales 4.01% 3.17% -0.95% 3.84% 3.02% 1.47% 2.05% 1.86% 2.67% 1.35% 2.45% 1.79% 2.94% 1.90% -0.57%





Summary and Commentary

There are a number of pros and cons in this revision:

-- As mentioned last month, at face value these kinds of growth numbers arguably strengthen the Fed's rationale to extricate itself from unconventional forms of stimulus. An economy that is reported to be growing at 3.89% is presumably healthy enough to need very little additional help from central banking officials.

-- Rapidly changing dollar-based commodity prices (and more specifically energy prices) are likely playing havoc with both the BEA's inventory and net import/export data, both of which changed materially in this revision. While one might expect inventories to be valued exclusively using some variation of book-value FIFO accounting logic, they are in fact additionally impacted by an "inventory valuation adjustment" (or "IVA") that utilizes price changes from a "Fisher formula" (that according to the BEA's notes "incorporates weights from two adjacent quarters; quarterly indexes are adjusted for consistency to the annual indexes before percent changes are calculated") when converting inventory values from "nominal" to "real". For this reason rapidly changing dollar based price levels can cause "real" inventories and net import/export data to fluctuate even if physical quantities remain relatively constant -- providing temporary "noise" that duly reverses in subsequent quarters.

-- From a global perspective, this reported growth is extraordinary. Again at face value, this report shows an economy isolated (if not benefiting through falling dollar-based commodity prices) from softening global economies.

-- That said, consumers are not spending as if the US economy is healthy and sustainable. Consumers generated well less than half of the headline growth even though they are still over two-thirds of the economy. And half of the previously reported growth in real per-capita disposable income vanished in this revision -- explaining to some extent why consumers have remained wary.

-- The impact of falling energy prices will certainly carry forward into the fourth quarter. The $.36 per gallon drop in "at-the-pump" prices for gasoline during the 3rd quarter alone should have freed up over $50 billion in annualized consumer cash -- transforming it from non-discretionary spending into leftover "pocket money." And since September 30th gasoline prices have dropped another $.52, adding an additional $73 billion annualized to those pockets. Total aggregate discretionary pocket cash available to households in the 4th quarter could amount to as much as 3% of total annualized consumer goods spending.

-- What then happens to that free cash is critical to the economy. If consumers are in a mood to spend, the money will flow into record discretionary holiday sales -- even if from a GDP standpoint that incremental holiday spending is actually a zero sum exercise (savings at the non-discretionary pump simply transferred into much hyped discretionary holiday retail sales). But the kicker is simply this: if consumers remain wary, net savings could increase even further and total consumer spending (discretionary and non-discretionary) might actually decrease.

We are likely living an ancient Chinese curse: the fourth quarter should, at the very least, be "interesting."
 
     
     
  October 30, 2014 - BEA Estimates 3rd Quarter 2014 GDP Growth at 3.54% Annualized Rate:

In their first estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +3.54% annualized rate, down a little more than a percent from the second quarter.

"Improving" imports and government spending are the stars of this report. Imports swung into positive territory with a +0.29% contribution to the headline number, up +2.06% from the prior quarter. Similarly, governmental spending contributed +0.83% to the headline, up over a half percent from the 2nd quarter (with Federal defense "consumption expenditures" creating a +0.76% boost to the headline number all by itself even as growth in state and local spending softened). Essentially all of the other line items were either flat or had a negative quarter-to-quarter impact on the headline. Inventories (as expected) reverted to mean and took -0.57% out of the headline. Commercial fixed investments grew at about half the rate reported during the prior quarter, the growth in exports lost about a third, the growth rate for consumer spending on goods was halved, and although consumer spending on services did increase, the increase was a relatively mild +0.10%.

Some good news: real annualized per-capita disposable income was reported to be $37,671 -- up $177 per year from the prior quarter (although still down $198 from the 4th quarter of 2012). Again a significant portion of that increased disposable income went into savings, with the savings rate increasing to 5.5% -- once more the highest savings level since 4Q-2012.

Inflation (or disinflation/deflation) plays a major part in this report, since during the quarter dollar-based energy prices were plunging. US "at the pump" gasoline prices fell from $3.68 per gallon to $3.32 during the quarter, a 9.8% quarter-to-quarter decline and a -33.8% annualized rate -- pushing most consumer oriented inflation indexes into negative territory. During the third quarter (i.e., from July through September) the seasonally adjusted CPI-U index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was actually mildly deflationary at a -0.10% (annualized) rate, and the price index reported by the Billion Prices Project (BPP -- which arguably reflected the real experiences of American households) was slightly more deflationary at -0.18% (annualized).

Yet for this report the BEA effectively assumed a positive annualized quarterly inflation of 1.28%. Over reported inflation will result in a more pessimistic growth data, and if the BEA's numbers were corrected for inflation using the BLS CPI-U the economy would be reported to be growing at a spectacular 4.97% annualized rate. If we were to use the BPP data to adjust for inflation, the quarter's growth rate would have been an astounding 5.07% annualized rate.

Among the notable items in the report :

-- The headline contribution of consumer expenditures for goods was 0.70% (down -0.63% from the prior quarter).

-- The contribution made by consumer services spending increased to 0.52% (up +0.10% from the 0.42% reported last quarter). The combined contribution to the headline number by consumers was 1.22%, down -0.53% from the prior quarter.

-- Commercial private fixed investments provided +0.74% of the headline number (down -0.71% from the 1.45% in the 2nd quarter), and this continued positive growth continues to be almost exclusively in non-residential construction.

-- Inventories subtracted -0.57% from the headline number (down -1.99% from the +1.42% reported for the second quarter).

-- Governmental spending was up +0.52%, now adding 0.83% to the headline. The improvement was all at a Federal level, in spending on "consumption expenditures". The growth of state and local spending softened -0.23% relative to the 2nd quarter.

-- Exports are now reported to be adding 1.03% to the headline growth rate (down -0.40% from the second quarter).

-- Imports added +0.29 to the headline number (a +2.06% turnaround from the prior quarter). The combined impact of the foreign trade quarter-to-quarter on the headline number was a significant +1.66%.

-- The annualized growth rate for the "real final sales of domestic product" is now reported to be 4.11% (up +0.94% from the earlier quarter). This is the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy, and it is now higher than the headline number because of the shrinking inventories.

-- And as mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income was $177 per year higher than during the prior quarter. The new number represents an annualized growth rate of 1.90%. That said, the real disposable income is still down a material -$198 per year from the fourth quarter of 2012 (before the FICA rates normalized) and it is up only 2.71% in total since the second quarter of 2008 -- a miserable 0.43% annualized growth rate over the past 6 and a quarter years.




The Numbers

As a quick reminder, the classic definition of the GDP can be summarized with the following equation :

GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government spending + (exports - imports)


or, as it is commonly expressed in algebraic shorthand :

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)


In the new report the values for that equation (total dollars, percentage of the total GDP, and contribution to the final percentage growth number) are as follows :

GDP Components Table

Total GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
Annual $ (trillions) $17.5 = $12.0 + $2.9 + $3.2 + $-0.5
% of GDP 100.0% = 68.2% + 16.3% + 18.3% + -2.8%
Contribution to GDP Growth % 3.54% = 1.22% + 0.17% + 0.83% + 1.32%


The quarter-to-quarter changes in the contributions that various components make to the overall GDP can be best understood from the table below, which breaks out the component contributions in more detail and over time. In the table below we have split the "C" component into goods and services, split the "I" component into fixed investment and inventories, separated exports from imports, added a line for the BEA's "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product" and listed the quarters in columns with the most current to the left :

Quarterly Changes in % Contributions to GDP

3Q-2014 2Q-2014 1Q-2014 4Q-2013 3Q-2013 2Q-2013 1Q-2013 4Q-2012 3Q-2012 2Q-2012 1Q-2012 4Q-2011 3Q-2011 2Q-2011 1Q-2011
Total GDP Growth 3.54% 4.59% -2.11% 3.50% 4.51% 1.77% 2.75% 0.06% 2.48% 1.62% 2.25% 4.59% 0.84% 2.94% -1.53%
Consumer Goods 0.70% 1.33% 0.23% 0.83% 0.80% 0.30% 1.35% 0.67% 0.74% 0.29% 1.06% 0.90% 0.20% -0.18% 0.66%
Consumer Services 0.52% 0.42% 0.60% 1.69% 0.59% 0.93% 1.11% 0.65% 0.58% 0.57% 0.81% 0.04% 1.00% 0.75% 0.72%
Fixed Investment 0.74% 1.45% 0.03% 0.95% 1.01% 0.74% 0.42% 0.96% 0.45% 0.61% 1.24% 1.36% 2.25% 1.10% -0.11%
Inventories -0.57% 1.42% -1.16% -0.34% 1.49% 0.30% 0.70% -1.80% -0.19% 0.27% -0.20% 2.80% -2.10% 1.04% -0.96%
Government 0.83% 0.31% -0.15% -0.71% 0.04% 0.04% -0.75% -1.20% 0.52% -0.08% -0.56% -0.31% -0.52% -0.08% -1.60%
Exports 1.03% 1.43% -1.30% 1.30% 0.67% 0.82% -0.12% 0.19% 0.28% 0.64% 0.19% 0.56% 0.57% 0.82% 0.27%
Imports 0.29% -1.77% -0.36% -0.22% -0.09% -1.36% 0.04% 0.59% 0.10% -0.68% -0.29% -0.76% -0.56% -0.51% -0.51%
Real Final Sales 4.11% 3.17% -0.95% 3.84% 3.02% 1.47% 2.05% 1.86% 2.67% 1.35% 2.45% 1.79% 2.94% 1.90% -0.57%





Summary and Commentary

Frankly, this report once again sends mixed messages:

-- On the surface it strengthened the Fed's hand for completing the QE taper. An economy that is growing at 3.54% is presumably healthy enough to need very little additional help from central banking officials.

-- That said, consumers are not spending as if the economy is healthy. Consumers generated only 1.22% of that headline growth, and they are still 68.2% of the economy. The growth in real per-capita disposable income is welcomed, but increased savings absorbed a significant portion of that growth. Apparently consumers remain wary.

-- And the inventory worm has turned. It provided +1.42% of last quarter's headline number, and promptly subtracted -0.57% from this quarter's number. As we have mentioned many times, this is a line item that over the long haul has been essentially a zero sum series. If it continues to revert to a long term zero sum we could see at least another quarter of negative contribution.

-- The growth in Federal "consumption expenditures" is an annual end-of-fiscal-year ritual. These are "expenditures" that are solely designed to expend any remaining budget allocations before they vanish at the end of September. In fact, the spending is only pulled forward from the fourth quarter -- when Federal spending "growth" generally reverses. Those more cynical than us might point out that the annual specious Federal "growth" contribution is also conveniently reported just before election days.

-- The wild card in all of this is reflected in the CPI and BPP numbers: the strengthening of the dollar has created an apparent disinflationary pricing environment for some goods that is likely playing havoc with the BEA's computations for inventories, exports and imports. Imports are also certainly being impacted by the double whammy of increased domestic production and crashing oil prices. In any event, the impact of the strength of the dollar is likely masking to some extent what is happening in the underlying "real" economy.

In some regards this report contains far too much noise to be able to tease out any real signals regarding the economy. Unfortunately, that situation is unlikely to improve for some time.
 
     


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 2013-12-05December 5, 2013 - BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2013 GDP Growth Sharply Upward to 3.60% Annual Rate 
 2013-11-07November 7, 2013 - BEA Estimates 3rd Quarter 2013 GDP Growth at 2.84% Annual Rate 
 2013-09-26September 26, 2013 - BEA Leaves 2nd Quarter 2013 GDP Growth Mostly Unchanged At 2.48% Annual Rate 
 2013-08-29August 29, 2013 - BEA Revises 2nd Quarter 2013 GDP Growth Upward To 2.52% Annual Rate 
 2013-07-31July 31, 2013 - BEA Estimates 2nd Quarter 2013 GDP Growth At 1.68% Annual Rate, While Revising 1st Quarter Sharply Downward 
 2013-06-26June 26, 2013 - BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2013 GDP Growth Downward To 1.78% Annual Rate 
 2013-05-30May 30, 2013 - BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2013 GDP Growth Down Slightly To 2.38% Annual Rate 
 2013-04-26April 26, 2013 - BEA Estimates 1st Quarter 2013 GDP Growing at 2.5% Annual Rate 
 2013-03-28March 28, 2013 - BEA Revises 4th Quarter 2012 GDP Upward to a 0.38% Annual Growth Rate 
 2013-03-19March 19, 2013 - Looking Back and Projecting Forward 
 2013-02-28February 28, 2013 - BEA Revises 4th Quarter 2012 GDP Upward to a 0.14% Annual Growth Rate 
 2013-01-30January 30, 2013 - BEA Reports 4th Quarter 2012 GDP Contracting at -0.14% Annual Rate 
 2013-01-03January 3, 2013 - A Final Review of 2012 Holiday Shopping Season 
 2012-12-20December 20, 2012 - BEA Raises 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth Estimate Once Again to 3.09% 
 2012-12-19December 19, 2012 - Updated Charts and Holiday Consumer Activities Revisited 
 2012-11-29November 29, 2012 - BEA Raises 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth Estimate to 2.67% 
 2012-11-26November 26, 2012 - Quick Update on the Impact of Super-Storm Sandy and the Electoral Blues 
 2012-11-05November 5, 2012 - Sandy and the Pre-Election Blues 
 2012-10-26October 26, 2012 - BEA Reports 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth at 2.02% 
 2012-10-23October 23, 2012 - 3rd Quarter GDP Preview and Chart Updates 
 2012-09-27September 27, 2012 - BEA Revises Annualized GDP Growth Downward to 1.26% 
 2012-08-29August 29, 2012 - BEA Revises Estimate of Annualized GDP Growth to 1.73% 
 2012-08-14August 14, 2012 - Our Weighted Composite Index Continues to Plunge 
 2012-07-27July 27, 2012 - BEA Estimates GDP Grew at 1.54% Rate During 2nd Quarter 
 2012-07-20July 20, 2012 - The Economic Cost of Ugly Politics 
 2012-06-28June 28, 2012 - BEA Leaves GDP Growth Rate Unchanged for 1Q-2012 at 1.88% 
 2012-06-19June 19, 2012 - Commentary and Chart Updates 
 2012-05-31May 31, 2012 - BEA Revises GDP Growth Rate for 1Q-2012 Down to 1.88% 
 2012-05-09May 9, 2012 - Chart Updates and Commentary 
 2012-04-27April 27, 2012 - BEA Report Shows GDP Growth Slowing During 1Q-2012 to 2.20% 
 2012-03-29March 29, 2012 - BEA Leaves 4Q-2011 Annualized GDP Growth Essentially Unchanged at 2.97% 
 2012-02-29February 29, 2012 - BEA Revises 4Q-2011 Annualized GDP Growth to 2.98% 
 2012-01-27January 27, 2012 - Headline 4Q-2011 GDP Growth of 2.75% Masks Mixed Signals 
 2012-01-19January 19, 2012 - Taking a Closer Look at Mixed Signals 
 2011-12-22December 22, 2011 - Third Quarter GDP Revised Downward Yet Again 
 2011-11-22November 22, 2011 - Third Quarter GDP Revised Downward 
 2011-11-11November 11, 2011 - Absolute Demand Index Plummets as Disposable Income Contracts 
 2011-10-27October 27, 2011 - GDP Improves Dramatically 
 2011-10-12October 12, 2011 - What's Going On? 
 2011-09-29September 29, 2011 - BEA Adjusts Second Quarter GDP Growth Rate Upward 
 2011-09-27September 27, 2011 - Chart Updates 
 2011-09-16September 16, 2011 - Data Update and the Sticky Jobs Situation 
 2011-09-09September 9, 2011 - Persistent Questions 
 2011-08-30August 30, 2011 - Has the BEA Already Documented the Second Dip? 
 2011-08-26August 26, 2011 - BEA Lowers Second Quarter GDP Growth Rate to Below 1% 
 2011-08-24August 24, 2011 - Update on Our Indexes 
 2011-08-15August 15, 2011 - Daily Growth Index Surge Continues; But Why? 
 2011-08-05August 5, 2011 - Special Update: Daily Growth Index Breaks Positive 
 2011-08-04August 4, 2011 - The BEA Revisions Revisited 
 2011-08-02August 2, 2011 - New Index & Housing Data 
 2011-07-29July 29, 2011 - BEA Reports 1Q-2011 and "Great Recession" Far Worse Than We Were Previously Told 
 2011-07-23July 23, 2011 - Unexpected Extremes & Mussolini Revisited 
 2011-07-16July 16, 2011 - Weighted Composite Index Continues to Strengthen 
 2011-07-09July 9, 2011 - Continuing Contraction Moderation; Shakespeare's Stimulating Idea 
 2011-07-02July 2, 2011 - Upturn in Daily Growth Index; Stimulating Despite Demographic Dilemmas 
 2011-06-24June 24, 2011 - The BEA's Third (and "Final") Estimate of First Quarter 2011 GDP 
 2011-06-21June 21, 2011 - Updating the Impact of Strategic Defaults 
 2011-06-15June 15, 2011 - Keeping Perspective and Strangulation by Regulation 
 2011-06-05June 5, 2011 - Bottom Bouncing and Scholarly Debt End-Games 
 2011-05-26May 26, 2011 - The BEA's Second Estimate of First Quarter 2011 GDP 
 2011-05-20May 20, 2011 - A Pause in the Ongoing Contraction; Incorporating Debt/GDP End-Games 
 2011-05-14May 14, 2011 - Continued Weakness in Consumer Demand; Unthinkable De-Financialization 
 2011-05-05May 5, 2011 - Resumed Downturns, Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence 
 2011-04-29April 29, 2011 - Bottoming at New Record Lows, Plus Debt/GDP End-Games via Insurrection 
 2011-04-28April 28, 2011 - The BEA's Advance Estimate of First Quarter 2011 GDP 
 2011-04-21April 21, 2011 - Making Sense of Our Indices, Plus Regime Changing Debt/GDP End-Games 
 2011-04-16April 16, 2011 - New Records and "Unthinkable" Sovereign Debt End-Games 
 2011-04-12April 12, 2011 - Updated Charts and Mr. Bernanke's Dilemma 
 2011-04-10April 10, 2011 - Retail Sales and Credit Expansions 
 2011-04-05April 5, 2011 - Automotive Euphoria; Sovereign Debt End-Games 
 2011-03-31March 31, 2011 - Continued Weakness; Divergences Revisited 
 2011-03-25March 25, 2011 - The BEA's Third Estimate of Fourth Quarter 2010 GDP 
 2011-03-23March 23, 2011 - Data Update; Sendai and Japan's Wealth -vs- GDP 
 2011-03-22March 22, 2011 - News and the Consumer, Reflections on Chernobyl and the Economy 
 2011-03-19March 19, 2011 - News and the Consumer, Bad Instruments and Chernobyl 
 2011-03-13March 13, 2011 - Glaring Disconnects and Tsunami Riding Black Swans 
 2011-02-25February 25, 2011 - Inside the BEA's New Lower Estimate of 4Q-2010 GDP Growth 
 2011-02-23February 23, 2011 - Recent Downturns in Our Indexes & the Fallacy Revisited 
 2011-02-16February 16, 2011 - Our Current Outlook and Bastiat's Broken Window 
 2011-02-09February 9, 2011 - An Update Plus Mid February Odds and Ends 
 2011-02-07February 7, 2011 - Measuring the Impact of "Strategic Defaults" and Mortgage Delinquencies on Consumer Spending 
 2011-02-02February 2, 2011 - Answering More Questions about the Q4-2010 GDP Report (Ad Nauseam) 
 2011-01-30January 30, 2011 - More Thoughts on the BEA's "Advance Estimate" for 4Q-2010 
 2011-01-29January 29, 2011 - What the BEA's Advance Estimate of Fourth Quarter 2010 GDP Was Really Telling Us 
 2011-01-12January 12, 2011 - Reflecting Back on 2010 
 2011-01-10January 10, 2011 - Lessons from 2010 
 2010-12-29December 29, 2010 - Looking Back at Holiday Sales and the BEA's Third Estimate for Q3-2010 
 2010-12-14December 14, 2010 - Feeding the Holiday Sales Frenzy While Maintaining Perspective 
 2010-12-07December 7, 2010 - Retail Updates, The Full Economy & GDP Revisited 
 2010-12-01December 1, 2010 - "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" 
 2010-11-23November 23, 2010 - First Revision to the Third Quarter GDP 
 2010-11-22November 22, 2010 - Continued Modest Improvements in Our Weighted Composite Index 
 2010-11-14November 14, 2010 - What Does the Bottom in the Daily Growth Index Mean? 
 2010-11-09November 9, 2010 - Daily Growth Index Shows Signs of Bottom Forming 
 2010-11-07November 7, 2010 - Revisiting the Character of the "Great Recession" 
 2010-10-31October 31, 2010 - The End of Political "FUD" Approaches 
 2010-10-29October 29, 2010 - Inside the Third Quarter GDP Release 
 2010-10-25October 25, 2010 - Current Contraction Surpasses "Great Recession" 
 2010-10-24October 24, 2010 - The U.S. Census Bureau's Retail Sales Report 
 2010-10-17October 17, 2010 - Political "FUD" and the Consumer Psyche 
 2010-10-10October 10, 2010 - Daily Growth Index Sets Record Low and Duration Marks 
 2010-10-05October 5, 2010 - Inside the September GDP Revisions 
 2010-10-03October 3, 2010 - Weakening Weighted Composite Pulls Daily Growth Index to All-Time Low 
 2010-09-26September 26, 2010 - The Diverging GDP 
 2010-09-22September 22, 2010 - NBER: Double Dip or Banana Split? 
 2010-09-20September 20, 2010 - Thoughts on the Recent "Bottom" in our Weighted Composite Index 
 2010-09-18September 18, 2010 - Has the Bottom Been Reached? 
 2010-09-11September 11, 2010 - The Big Scoop and Housing 
 2010-09-02September 2, 2010 - Autos, Personal Finance, and Refinancing 
 2010-09-01September 1, 2010 - Viewing the "Great Recession" in Hi-Def 
 2010-08-30August 30, 2010 - Taking a Closer Look at the "Great Recession" 
 2010-08-28August 28, 2010 - Inside the BEA's Latest GDP Numbers 
 2010-08-22August 22, 2010 - 75 Days of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt 
 2010-08-20August 20, 2010 - Politics and the Economy; Cause and Effect 


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Consumer Metrics Institute Presentation Series:
Economic Data for the 21st Century - Part 1 (Duration 7:35)
 
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