Consumer Metrics Institute: Frequently Asked Questions


	Consumer Metrics Institute Frequently Asked Questions	E-Mail:

"Bringing the measurements of critical economic activities into the twenty-first century by
mining tracking data for an understanding of what American consumers were doing yesterday."

Frequently Asked Questions:

What are Leading Indicators?

Leading Indicators are measures of (or statistics about) specific activities within the economy that generally precede or predict the general health of the economy as a whole.

The concept of an indicator that leads the performance of the economy has been around at least since Charles Dow published a series of editorials in 'The Wall Street Journal'. After Dow's death in 1902 the principles outlined in the editorials were recast by his successors at 'The Wall Street Journal' as the Dow Theory. Although Dow never referred to his ideas as 'the Dow Theory', he did propose that a bull market was likely to follow rallies in both his Industrial and Transportation Indexes. He further thought it likely that his Transportation Index would 'lead' the Industrial Index, since the railroads would have to carry goods before they could reach their ultimate markets.

In 1937 the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research under the direction of Wesley Clair Mitchell produced a list of leading indicators in response to a concern about the status of the recovery from the 1937-1938 recession. The 1937 list of indicators began a compilation of nearly 500 time series of economic data, but did not yet include the concept of a single index (which was later developed by Henry Ludwell Moore).

Currently The Conference Board™, a non-governmental organization, publishes the most closely watched set of indexes. Their Leading Economic Index™ is comprised of ten separate statistics: the U.S. economy's Money Supply (M2), the interest rate spread between long term and short term government bonds (the yield curve), an index of consumer expectations, the number of building permits issued, stock prices (using the S&P 500™ stock index), supplier deliveries, average weekly manufacturing hours, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials. Most of these statistics are updated by their government sources on a monthly basis.

Are there any issues with most Leading Indicators?

Leading Indexes that rely on data published by governmental departments are generally updated monthly several weeks after the month's end. Often the governmental data includes some estimates and is necessarily preliminary, so a final set of numbers is published yet a month later. The resulting many week 'lag' in the most widely followed 'leading' index caused The Conference Board in January 2001 to revise the methodologies used in constructing their Index of Leading Indicators to make the index both more timely and more useful (see report by Robert H. McGuckin). Yet even with these revisions, the data used is (on average) still more than a month old at the time of publication, and the single monthly average value provided by each update results in only 12 measurements of any given index in any given year.

Additionally, most published 'Leading Indicators' use the value of stock market indexes as one of their key components. This presumes that the stock market itself is a predictor of the health of the economy, when arguably the relationship between the health of the equity markets and the health of the economy is both highly complex and subject to mutual feedback. The 2008-2009 recession provided some evidence of this connection, when the consequences of financial market problems with sub-prime mortgages significantly exacerbated the broader economic slowdown. And since most traditional 'Leading Indicators' already use recent historical stock market indexes as a component, they cannot have predictive value for those very same equity markets.

How are the Consumer Leading Indicators on this site different from other leading indicators?

The 'Consumer Leading Indicators' on this site are much more timely than most other leading indicators, and they tightly focus on the U.S. consumer, which is the driving force behind 70% of the U.S. economy's activity. The increased timeliness is the result of two major improvements over other leading indicators:

1) We have taken Charles Dow's ideas to heart and we have moved as far 'up-stream' economically as possible - to the point where a consumer is actually making the initial purchase decisions for major durable goods. Our information is captured in some cases while the transaction is still being processed - before the retailer (let alone the wholesaler or manufacturer) is fully aware of the cash flows being generated.

2) We capture that data daily and publish the day-to-day results several times per week, unlike the monthly publication of monthly numbers typical of most other leading indicators. Additionally, we publish daily indexes for a number of separate sectors of the U.S. economy (e.g., the Automotive Index), and still more weekly sub-indexes of selected segments within those sectors (e.g., Domestic Autos or Luxury Autos).

3) We also differ from other indicators because our focus is exclusively on major discretionary spending of the U.S. consumer. This is the largest and most volatile portion of the U.S. economy, and the initiating force behind growth and contraction cycles. Other leading indicators heavily weight manufacturing data into their 'leading' indicators - activities which, from our perspective, are months or quarters 'down-stream'.

What kind of purchase interest is tracked?

The Consumer Leading Indicators track consumer interest in major discretionary purchases. These typically include such items as automobiles, housing, vacations, durable household goods and investments. Not included would be expenditures that are more or less automatic, relatively minor and/or non-discretionary, such as groceries, fuel or utilities.

What do the index values represent?

The index values are relative to the same period one year ago. An index value of 100 on any date indicates consumers showing the same level of interest in purchases as on that same date one year earlier. Thus an index of 105 indicates an increase in consumer interest of 5% relative to the same date a year earlier. An index of 95 would similarly indicate a 5% decrease in interest relative to the same period in the prior year.

Why use relative indexes?

There are a number of reasons why we have chosen to calculate the indexes this way:

1) Increases or decreases in consumer interest over the past 12 months are obvious from the index value itself, without the need to research through historic tables to find the values for prior dates. Thus an index value of 100 means that consumer interest is at the same level experienced a year ago; values above 100 indicate an upward trend while values below 100 show a declining level of consumer interest relative to the same date in the prior year.

2) By using this methodology each index is constantly being re-normalized. Unlike the consumer price index, for example, there is no set time period in the distant past when the index had some fixed value. Each index value therefore always reflects a '100 base' re-normalization relative to consumer interest levels 12 months earlier.

3) The economic implications of consumer behavior is markedly different in each sector of the consumer economy. Interest in automotive or housing purchases carry much greater impact on the overall economy than purchases of clothing or household goods. Yet within each sector it remains important to track sector-specific consumer interest in purchases. Relative indices are a simple way to maintain time-series integrity within each sector index while allowing for the proper weighting of the sectors when calculating the aggregate economic impact ('Weighted Composite Index') of all consumer activities.

4) Relative indexes allow us to expand our sample sizes and market coverage from time to time without distorting the indices themselves. Changes in either market penetration or coverage will significantly change the raw quantities of consumer interest sampled. Relative indices provide a natural and transparent way to internally adjust for changes in our sampling methodologies while calculating each base-100 year-over-year index.

5) Relative indexes of Consumer interest supply a crude day-by-day measure of year-over-year growth or contraction in the Consumer driven portion of the U.S. Economy. If the averaged value of the 'Weighted Composite Index' for a given quarter was 105, a crude 'first order' guess at the annualized growth of the Consumer Sector of the U.S. Economy would be 5%. Similarly, if the averaged value of the same index were 95, someone might guess that the Consumer Sector contracted over that quarter at an annualized rate of 5%.

Note: An index with a prolonged value substantially above or below 100 is experiencing a significant period of compounded (i.e., exponential) growth or collapse. A sustained value of 120 would indicate a compounded 20% year-over-year growth in consumer interest. Similarly, a sustained index value of 80 indicates a compounded 20% year-over-year 'death-spiral' of consumer interest. Since neither of these conditions should be expected to be maintained during normal economic times, any index should have a natural tendency to return over time to 'normal' readings closer to 100.

6) Year-Over-Year relative indexes are inherently seasonally adjusted, without having to resort to any separate and arbitrary 'seasonal adjustment' factors. Our indexes always reflect activity relative to a year earlier (actually, 364 days earlier to compare against the same day of the week). Thus relative year-over-year consumer demand for jet skis and snow boards are properly reflected, regardless of the current calendar reading.

7) Relative indexes allow for the correction of a bias in the raw numbers caused by the gradual overall shift of commerce from brick and mortar stores to the internet. This means that because of the intrinsic growth in internet activities, we must also 'normalize' our indexes to be unbiased by the underlying background growth of internet commerce. To accomplish this we also monitor the overall growth in all forms of internet activity at popular search portals to provide a day-by-day background growth factor that effectively removes the commerce shift bias from our indexes.

What is the 'Weighted Composite Index'?

Since activities in each of the separate sectors have different impacts on the overall economy, the 'Weighted Composite Index' is calculated in a way that reflects the relative importance of each sector's contribution to the total consumer economy.

This weighting is actually done at a sub-component level within each sector (e.g., separately tallying the 'transportation' and 'hotel' components of the Travel Sector) and weighting those sub-components according to their portion of the total U.S. economy as reflected in the current United States Department of Commerce's National Income and Product Accounts ('NIPA') Tables. Since the relative sizes of the sub-components change daily, the net weightings provided by the NIPA matrix are actually dynamic and change over time.

For example, as mentioned, our Travel sector consists of 'Inter-city Personal Transportation', 'Hospitality' and 'Rental Vehicles' components which are in very different places in the 'NIPA' tables, which in turn are weighted very differently as portions of national economic activity. As the mix between those components changes dynamically day-to-day the net weighting of the Travel sector in our 'Weighted Composite Index' will change accordingly.

As an additional example, each retailer that we monitor contributes to our Retail Index according to the number of transactions observed, even though the types of products that they carry have very different weights in the NIPA weighting tables used to calculate our 'Weighted Composite Index'. For this reason Amazon, Home Depot and Walmart impact the Retail Index very differently than they impact the 'Weighted Composite Index'.

For this reason, the 'Weighted Composite Index' may behave significantly differently from any or all of the individual sectors we separately track. In fact, on occasion the 'Weighted Composite Index' has been either above or below any of the individual sector indexes. If the transaction volume weighted sector indexes diverge from the dollar weighted 'Weighted Composite Index', something interesting is happening in the economy. If the sectors are stronger than the 'Weighted Composite Index', consumers may be very actively spending on smaller "feel-good" purchases, while holding back on bigger items that require a longer term financial commitment. Conversely, if the 'Weighted Composite Index' strengthens while the sectors lag, consumers may have cut back on the smaller expenditures in order to fund the big ticket items. In either case consumer "activity" is diverging from the economic impact of that activity.

Since the 'Weighted Composite Index' better reflects the economic impact and transaction size of Consumer activities, it best represents (and is a truer indicator of) the strength of the overall consumer discretionary economy relative to a year earlier and more closely mirrors how the 'demand' side activity will subsequently flow downstream to the 'production' side of the economy and the GDP.

How do you track consumer interest?

Most people are aware that their behavior in the internet is captured and used to provide targeted ads and suggest products that may interest them. We mine similar tracking databases to monitor anonymous macroeconomic tendencies within each of our defined sectors on a daily basis. Our analytical methodologies have been developed and refined over time, and they remain the proprietary core of our business. Unfortunately, we must keep the precise details of our sampling process confidential to protect both the integrity of our methodologies and the security of our data.

Authentication and validation of our data collection process is an operational priority, and you may notice occasional multi-day delays in the publication of our indexes as we authenticate and/or aggregate samples for more statistically significant meta-analysis in cases where sample sizes are less robust. The end results are still day-by-day indexes, perhaps updated several times per week instead of every day.

It is important to note both the immediacy of our results and their scope. We sample consumer activities across the entire U.S. economy, sampling activities in all 50 states. Our data is collected daily, and is generally available in the form of updated indices within several days of the sampling period.

Why do the Sub-Indexes sometimes behave differently from their parent Sector Indexes?

The Sub-Indexes that we highlight graphically on each Sector page generally represent a minor and more specific sub-sample of the activities that we follow for the full sector, and the Sub-Indexes are sometimes specifically chosen because they are different, i.e., they show activities in a sub-section of the full sector that are moving in ways quite different from the full sector.

Sub-Indexes generally reflect a greater specificity in consumer decisions (e.g., a decision to purchase a certain make and model of European Automobile) than the broader Sector (e.g., a desire to purchase a new automobile where no specific brand or model has been selected yet).

Additionally we publish the Sub-Indexes on a weekly basis with a weekly resolution, whereas the full Sector Indexes are tracked daily. The primary reason for this difference in update frequency relates to sample size and the need to increase sampling period to obtain statistically significant data for the much more specific activities involved in the Sub-Indexes. Thus the Sub-Indexes will not have either the resolution or timeliness of the full Sector Indexes.

What is available in the Members Area of the web-site?

Members of the Consumer Metrics Institute may log in to the Members Area (you can view a sample Consumer Metrics Institute Members Area that contains historical non-current sample data only) to access charts and data not available in the public portions of the website. That exclusive content includes of all of our historical data from January 1st, 2005 to date. Additionally, several risk analysis tools are available in the Members Area, including the 'Trailing Percentiles' charts and our 'Growth Index' Data. The Members Area of the web-site is available only to current members of the Consumer Metrics Institute. Membership in the Consumer Metrics Institute can be obtained on our SignUp page.

What are the Trailing 91-Day, 183-Day and 365-Day Percentiles?

The full economic impact of any prolonged change in Consumer interest and activities can only be understood by analyzing both the level of our indexes and the duration of any extended deviation from the norm. A one day downward blip in the level of an index may have essentially no effect on an entire economy; but that same level, if extended over a quarter or a year, could be devastating. The index's deviation from 100 is a measure of the current level of growth or contraction in the Consumer Sector of the U.S. Economy, but the consequence of such a deviation can only be understood by summing the daily deviations over the duration of the trend.

What this means is that if you were viewing a graph of our 'Weighted Composite Index', the full economic impact of any prolonged deviation of the index above or below a value of 100 is best measured by the area between the graph line and the horizontal line representing value 100. This area 'under' the curve can be either positive or negative, depending on whether the area is above or below the line at value 100.

To provide a context for the scope or scale index excursions, we calculate the net total area 'under' the curve for constant trailing periods. These periods correspond in duration to a quarter, six months and a year - but they are sliding periods, shifting each day so that they always represent the most recent 91 days, 183 days and 365 days. Thus at any given time we have snapshots of the net positive or negative total impact of trends in Consumer interest over sliding (but fixed duration) time periods.

These fixed durations have been selected so that they can be compared statistically to similar length historical periods in the U.S. Economy. For example, if our 'Weighted Composite Index' is a reasonable reflection of the Consumer Sector of the U.S. Economy, at any given time we have a trailing 'quarter' of net growth or contraction that can be compared to historical quarters of GDP growth and contraction data kept by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce (see GDP Growth Tables).

The 'Percentiles' we provide from these calculations simply rank the trailing 'quarter' or 'six months' or 'year' among all similar duration calendar periods tracked by the BEA since the spring of 1947. A ranking of the 50th percentile means that a given trailing period was absolutely average. A ranking of the 90th percentile means that a trailing 91-Day period would be among the best one-tenth of all quarters since 1947 (if it were a true calendar quarter). Similarly, a ranking in the 5th percentile would place a trailing period among the worst 5 percent of all similar duration calendar periods recorded since 1947.

What are the 91-Day, 183-Day and 365-Day Growth Indexes?

The trailing 91-Day, 183-Day and 365-Day Growth Indexes (or sometimes shown as Growth %) are simply 91, 183 and 365 day (respectively) moving averages for the year-over-year net growth/contraction of the 'Weighted Composite Index'. These are essentially the 'areas under the curve' that are ultimately used to calculate the corresponding 'trailing percentiles' through the statistical comparison of these values with one, two and four quarter GDP growth histories respectively in the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP Growth Tables. These 'Growth Indexes' are the year-over-year actual growth from which the 'Trailing Percentiles' are drawn.

The 91-Day and 183-Day Growth Indexes are closely followed as 'demand side' proxies for major economic statistics. The 91-Day trailing 'quarter' can serve as a real-time Consumer demand analog for the GDP annualized growth numbers that are used to measure the 'supply side' production growth. Our trailing 'quarter' is a number of months upstream from the factory production figures, and was leading the GDP by about 17 weeks at the end of 2009.

Similarly the 183-Day Growth Index is our demand side measure of whether or not the Consumer stimuli to the economy are in a 'recession'. Traditional economists use the 'two consecutive quarters' of growth or contraction as a signal for the economy dropping into or recovering from a recession. Our 183-Day trailing 'two quarters' does exactly the same for Consumer activities on the demand side of the economy. If the number is positive, the average reading of our 'Weighted Composite Index' over the preceding sliding 'two quarters' is signalling growth and no 'recession'. If, on the other hand, the 183-Day Growth Index is negative, then the trailing 'two quarters' were in net contraction, signalling a demand side 'recession'.

Why does your Growth Index differ so much from the official GDP numbers published by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)?

There are several reasons for the differences, all of which are significant for investors:

1) In order to maintain consistent data series, the BEA is measuring the same types of supply-side data that they first developed in the middle of the previous century in a effort to analyze economic activities that were important at that time. We, on the other hand, are using twenty-first century technologies to measure real-time demand-side consumer activities typical of today.

2) The pace of the mid-twentieth century economy was such that a quarterly update was considered adequate for largely academic pursuits. Our indexes, however, have a daily time resolution and are updated daily (within days of data acquisition) for the benefit of the investing public.

3) The BEA extensively revises their numbers over several months in order to get the numbers finally 'right'. This may have been acceptable 60 years ago, particularly when used for leisurely academic analysis. In contrast, our daily numbers are final when published.

4) There is a natural lag between changes in demand and when the impact of those changes filter down through the supply chain to factories. If Consumer demand is the fundamental stimulus of most economic activity in the U.S., we are much closer to (or further 'upstream' towards) the source of any changes in the economy.

We feel that investors deserve information that is upstream economically, has daily resolution, isn't noisy or frequently revised, and is measuring what Consumers are actually doing in the current century. As one example of the net result of the above differences, the BEA's measurement of the 4th Quarter 2009 U.S. GDP lagged our trailing 'quarter' Growth Index by about 17 weeks.

Is is possible to reconcile your data to the BEA's GDP?

Attempting to 'reconcile' our data to the BEA's official GDP reports has several issues involved in it:

1) Their 1937 based focus on factories. Factories are WAY downstream from where the real economic action is, probably 4 or 5 months. I understand why a factory focus was chosen in 1937 (given FDR's constituency and 1937 jobs demographics), but the economy is much more than factories in 2010.

2) Their questionnaire approach, which leads to survivor and large firm biases. Not to mention lags and revisions when the data does finally come in.

3) Their inclusion of non-demand driven inventory adjustments, which is a natural consequence of them attempting to reconcile consumer demand to factory production.

4) Their (understandable) inclusion of non-consumer stimuli (e.g., 747's, aircraft carriers & interstate highways). Federal stimuli run amuck should bias their numbers substantially.

5) Our numbers are strictly year-over-year growth, which require no seasonal adjustments. Their numbers are 'annualized' growth, seasonally adjusted.

How much does your indexes lead the BEA's GDP?

We have gained some notoriety for having our Daily Growth Index lead the GDP by a relatively consistent 18-20 weeks during the 2008 Great Recession. Does this mean that we expect the GDP to mirror our Daily Growth Index a couple of quarters from now?

1) Our methodologies capture only on-line consumer demand for discretionary durable goods, the most volatile portion of the consumer's 70% contribution to the GDP. As a consequence we do not see the impact of governmental stimuli. If governmental spending packages offset significant changes in consumer demand, the GDP might never feel the full weight of those changes.

2) However we suspect that consumers are the '800 pound gorilla' in the U.S. economy, and their actions (or inactions) are ultimately felt in the GDP.

By analogy to (American) football statistics, we are only measuring the performance of the starting quarterback for the U.S. economic team. It is possible for a football team to win even though the quarterback is below average -- an overwhelming defense and a punishing running game can compensate for a journey-man quarterback -- but the performance of the starting quarterback is by far the best predictor of a football team's final results. The U.S. economy might grow without the U.S. consumer's support, but only with net exports and/or unsustainable governmental consumption. At the current time the likelihood of the U.S. becoming a net exporter is very low, and unsustainable governmental consumption is simply that: unsustainable.

It is also helpful to distinguish between 'leading' and 'predicting'; we have deliberately decided to measure discretionary consumer demand data because it is highly leading, while fully realizing that the volatile data provides amplified signals. Fortunately during the 2008 recession the BEA's numbers for the full economy eventually matched the discretionary consumer demand portion (that we measure) with embarrassing accuracy. While we know that we are measuring only one portion of the economy -- the quarterback in the above analogy -- we still feel that those measurements reliably lead the economy as a whole. And it is unreasonable to expect the BEA's 1937 based measurements -- of those portions of the economy that really mattered in 1937 -- to even eventually get the numbers right for the current U.S. consumer based economy.

As the saying goes: our numbers are what they are. They are pure daily measures of on-line consumer demand for discretionary durable goods. If consumer demand decisions initiate 70% of all U.S. commerce, we would like to measure that demand as far 'upstream' as possible.

Can the 'Consumer Leading Indicators' be used to time the stock market?

We are not investment advisors. We present our indices for what they are: simple measurements of consumer interest in making major discretionary purchases.

The value of our indexes to investors may lie in the frequency and immediacy of the data. For these reasons, our indicators are in a sense the most leading of all common leading indicators - not simply because we are measuring activities which are more 'upstream' economically (and therefore intrinsically more 'leading'), but also because our measurements are generally available sooner and with higher time period (daily) resolution.

Additionally, the 'Trailing Percentiles' may assist investors assess the risks represented by the changes we monitor in consumer interest and activities. For example, our 'Trailing 91-Day Percentile' might give a risk averse investor a leading perspective on the possible severity of approaching economic slowdowns. Since our indicators have historically tended to lead the market by more than a quarter, a risk adverse investor might choose to take a defensive posture if the 'Trailing 91-Day Percentile' drops below the 5th percentile, signaling a possible 'once in 5 years' quarter commencing shortly in the investment markets.

Several words of caution need to be said to investors interested in using our information as a guide for their investment decisions:

1) We are measuring primarily consumer activities relating to the largely discretionary purchases of durable goods. This is a major component of the U.S. economy, but not the only one. Other actions by commercial or governmental entities are not necessarily reflected in our samples, nor are largely non-discretionary consumer expenses (e.g., groceries, utilities, non-discretionary medical care and income taxes).

2) Most of the widely followed leading indicators are designed to lead the overall economy (i.e., the U.S. Gross Domestic Product or GDP), but not the equity markets, and they are revised on a monthly basis. In contrast, our leading indicators are measuring activities that haven't been recorded yet by GDP measurements, and our time resolution is so detailed that a week's upward movement might not ever materialize as movement within longer term or broader economic measurements (e.g., the GDP). Even if our indicators accurately predict current economic changes, the reported results from corporations as a result of those changes will necessarily lag our indicators by months or quarters. Since investment prices are in part driven by corporate reports, investment markets can lag our indicators by substantial periods.

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3) Investment markets react to things other than the levels of consumer commerce. Natural disasters or political upheavals can cause market movements that are quite independent of then current fundamental economic activities. Public sentiment towards investment markets can also differ markedly from the actions that those same consumers are making in their day-to-day lives. Thus investment markets can be driven by emotions, events and the news media in ways that are substantially different from the level of consumer activities.

Thus our indexes should probably not be used as the sole (or even primary) source of information for investment decisions. Nevertheless, the indexes probably should be considered useful components in the overall investment decision process.

Are you aware of any potential bias in the indexes and percentiles?

In order to provide our data in as timely a manner as possible, our sampling techniques are electronic and rely on the internet for communications. As a result of our reliance on the very same technologies you are now using to view our results, the consumers whose interests we gauge are, by definition, connected to the internet. In general, our use of only internet connected consumers may bias our results in several ways:

1) Our 'consumer' demographics may be tilted towards higher income and education levels than the entire U.S. consumer base. Our 'consumer' demographics will mirror the demographics of internet users, not the populace of the U.S. as a whole. Thus our results will show the same gender and age bias, for example, as internet users have relative to the U.S. population. Similarly, people with limited access to the internet because of geography or poverty will be excluded from our results.

2) At this time our sampling technologies only function in English. We may expand our techniques in the future, but at present we do not measure consumer activities (even in the U.S.) that are conducted in Spanish, for example.

3) As mentioned above, we do not collect data on purchases that involve little or no discretion on the part of the consumer. These would include utility bills, monthly mortgage payments, essential medical expenses, gasoline and ordinary groceries. These kinds of purchases are core economic activities that involve little or no thought (or discretion) on the part of the consumer. We are interested only in the highly variable (and discretionary) parts of the consumer economy.

4) The reference data used in calculating our 'Trailing Percentiles' is from a table of historical quarters of GDP growth and contraction data kept by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce. The roughly 250 calendar quarters of data in the table start with the 2nd quarter of 1947 and have a mean annualized GDP growth of about 3.3%, with a standard deviation slightly above 4%. The 60 year time period covered by the table is certainly lengthly, but it may not be truly representative of the U.S. Economy of the past 10 or 20 years. Nor does it remotely represent the entire 20th century. The 60-plus years in the table may be a period of extraordinary prosperity that is not representative of the U.S. Economy over longer (or more current) time periods.

How can I download historic data that I can analyze myself?

Historic data is available for download by active members of the Consumer Metrics Institute. Personal Investor Memberships in the Consumer Metrics Institute can be purchased on our SignUp page at a cost of $95 (USD) per year.

All downloads contain daily data for all of our indexes for five years back to the latest date we have available on this site. Additionally, our sector sub-component data is included on a weekly basis for the same time frames.

The downloads can be made in any of several common formats: 'tab delimited' .txt files for use with database programs, 'comma delimited' .csv files for import into spreadsheets, .html tables that can be 'cut and pasted' into spreadsheets, and .xml files that can be used by the latest generation of spreadsheets.

Members of the Consumer Metrics Institute may download the data daily, should they so choose. Since the indexes are updated serveral times per week new data download files are available for download on the same frequency. Members of the Consumer Metrics Institute have daily access to the very latest data for their own personal analysis in either spreadsheet or database formats.

What is in the sample files available on the download page?

The sample files that can be downloaded from the Download page have only one month of data in them (August, 2008), whereas each download available to members of the Consumer Metrics Institute have data for ALL dates from January 1, 2005 through our latest update. The sample files have been made available so that interested parties can test their spreadsheet or database programs with sample data representing a very small subset of the full data set. The formats of the sample files and the full data downloads are identical, only the number of data rows changes.

Is the historical data in your downloadable files subject to revision?

Yes. We are continually revising our sampling technologies and analytical algorithms. While we endeavor to minimize changes in the historical value of indexes, we also understand the importance of maintaining the integrity of the methods used to calculate values in a very long time series. If, from time to time, we make significant advancements in our sampling or analytical techniques we will update the historical data to provide consistency with our latest indexes and technologies. At minimum, at the beginning of January each year we recast all our historical data to reflect a myriad of minor improvements that we have been developing and testing during the prior year. Think of this as the release of a new version of our systems.

A recent example of such a revision occurred on February 9th 2010, when we completed an extensive upgrade to our data acquisition and analysis methodologies. As a consequence we recast our historic data proforma using the improved sample sizes provided by the new methodologies. The improved sample sizes resulted in both lower noise and enhanced resolution in all of the indexes. But minor data changes did occur: prior to the revision our 'Weighted Composite Index' 2009 peak occurred on August 13th at a value of 110.84; after the upgrade the 2009 peak had shifted one day to August 12th with a value of 111.15. Minor data value changes of this sort should be expected whenever we upgrade our sampling and analysis technologies, but the inconvenience of the data revisions is clearly offset by the lower noise and greater resolution we achieve with each round of enhancements.

For this reason, each and every download of our data includes all historical data calculated in the same manner as the latest daily index. If you are doing your own analysis of the data in our tables, please always refresh your historical data points with the latest downloads from our website - especially at the beginning of each calendar year or after we have announced major enchancements.

Does the Members Area include any projections/forecasts of the indices and/or respective sub-indices?

The entire reason we have moved as far 'upstream' as possible in the Consumer economy is to avoid guesswork and extrapolations: our indexes and sub-indexes are inherently indicative of where the ordinary "Leading Economic Indicators" will be in 45-150 days!

But to answer your question in a literal sense: since our indexes are already ahead of all other indexes, we simply report what Consumers have actually been doing over a recent few days and do not try to project/extrapolate/forecast our indexes into the future. We don't guess future movements of our indexes; we just record actual activity that substantially precedes similar movements in other indexes and both the US economy and the US equity markets.

In addition to the exclusive Members Area data, membership in the Consumer Metrics Institute entitles you to one year of daily downloads of all of our data, which extends from January 2005 through the latest date that we have completely collected and fully verified (typically 3 to 5 days prior to the download date). The index data is in the same format as can be found in the the sample tables that can be downloaded from the Download page, except that the rows extend from January 1st, 2005 through sometime within the past few days. Similarly the sub-index data covers the same time span in weekly increments.

What is the Consumer Metrics Institute?

The Consumer Metrics Institute was founded on a simple observation: many 'leading' economic indicators are published, but few (if any) are sufficiently 'leading' to be meaningful to investors. In fact, many 'leading' indicators use the prior month's equity market results as a key component of their indexes. Investors may find their most recent month-end account statements more timely.

To remedy this, the Consumer Metrics Institute has developed (and is continuing to develop) techniques for monitoring 'up-stream' economic activities on a daily basis. The daily consumer sampling process commenced in 2004, and several years of data were required to refine the process and statistically analyze how the timing of our indexes related to other 'leading' indicators, including the equity markets. The 2008-2009 recession provided a final validation of the methodologies and confirmed a multi-month lead relative to other commonly referenced indicators. Additionally, the 2008-2009 event was significant enough to verify whether our trailing percentiles adequately reflected the severity of the downturn. By the summer of 2009 we were ready to release the first results of our ongoing research.

How can I join the Consumer Metrics Institute?

The SignUp page within this website provides a simple and direct way to purchase a membership in the Consumer Metrics Institute.

There are several levels of memberships available:

1) Personal Investor Annual Membership: $95 per year. This membership level is intended for the private use of individual investors, who may download all of the data available for their non-commercial use in managing their own (or family) investments. Think of this level as the equivalent of buying a DVD for home entertainment, where the copyrighted material could not be redistributed, shared or used by a business or governmental entity without the express written approval of the copyright holder. This membership level may be purchased directly from the SignUp page of the website.

2) Advisor Level Membership: $1,950 per year. This membership level provides access for up to 25 employees or clients of a member entity. The Advisor Level Membership comes with permission to reproduce and routinely distribute charts and commentary from the members-only portion of the website. Think of this level as the equivalent of licensing a movie for display while conducting business. This membership level may also be purchased directly from the SignUp page of the website. We will contact you with details on authorizing employee/client access.

3) Corporate Sponsorship Level: $9,500 per year. This membership level provides access for up to 250 employees or clients of the member institution. The Corporate Sponsorship Level Membership comes with permission to reproduce and routinely distribute charts and commentary from the members-only portion of the website. Additionally, Corporate Sponsorship Level Members may have a custom index designed for their exclusive use and an annual appearance from one of our speakers. Please use the Corporate Sponsorship form on our sign-up page to start the Corporate Sponsorship Level enrollment process.

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For Personal Investor Annual Memberships, before you purchase download capabilities, check out the sample downloads to ensure that you can work with one or more of the download formats that we provide. Then simply click on the 'Pay Now' button on the SignUp Page to purchase an Personal Investor Non-Commercial Annual Membership for $95 (USD). The 'Pay Now' button on the SignUp Page will take you to the PayPal® payment website, where you can pay through either a PayPal® account or any of several standard credit cards (Visa, MasterCard, Discover and American Express) OR via PayPal Bank transfers.

After you have made your Membership purchase, you should be automatically brought back to our site, where you can print information about your transaction and begin downloading data using the E-Mail address that you provided to PayPal® as your Membership ID. A brief E-Mail confirming your Membership will be sent to that same E-Mail address.

At the Consumer Metrics Institute we value our relationship with our Members. We will never provide any information about our members to third parties. . And, as always, your satisfaction as a Member of the Consumer Metrics Institute is guaranteed. Please contact us via our 'Contacts' page if you have any questions or problems concerning your membership.

What is included in the Automotive Index?

The Automotive Index is indicative of consumer interest in new and used automobiles. It includes interest in car dealerships, auto loans, auto leasing, auto insurance, and automotive accessories.

What is included in the Entertainment Index?

The Entertainment Index demonstrates consumer interest in the purchase of public entertainment and dining. This index includes live concerts, theatrical presentations, public movie exhibitions, ticketed sporting events, full service restaurants, taverns and lounges.

What is included in the Financial Index?

The Financial Index tracks consumer interest in consumer investment opportunities, including mutual funds, stocks, bonds, annuities, insurance, banks and credit unions. Interest in services related to the banking and financial industries (including securities brokerage, consumer loans and credit reporting) can also be found in this index. The Financial Index also responds inversely to concerns that consumers have expressed about potential credit card defaults or foreclosures.

What is included in the Health Index?

The Health Index informs us about consumer interest in making discretionary health and medical purchases. Included are such items as weight loss programs, health clubs, spas, discretionary medical procedures (e.g., cosmetic surgery, laser eye surgery and orthodontia).

What is included in the Household Index?

The Household Index indicates consumer interest in durable household goods, including furniture, appliances, home decorating supplies, home remodeling supplies and services, apparel and jewelry.

What is included in the Housing Index?

The Housing Index captures consumer interest in the purchase of new and existing housing, first time mortgages, refinancing of existing mortgages, and rental homes or apartments. Interest in the engagement of ancillary services (e.g. property appraisals, property inspections, title searches, real estate agents and mortgage brokers) is also caught by this index.

What is included in the Recreation Index?

The Recreation Index shows the level of consumer interest in sporting goods, recreational vehicles (motorcycles, snowmobiles, campers and trailers), camping and fishing equipment, boats, hunting equipment, bicycles, exercise equipment, swim outfits (including scuba and surfing equipment), crafts and hobby supplies (including high-end photographic equipment).

What is included in the Retail Index?

The Retail Index directly responds to consumer activities when seeking retail sources for durable goods. The specific types of goods to be purchased may be reflected in other categories, but this index most closely and immediately tracks imminent purchasing decisions that translate into retail sales.

What is included in the Technology Index?

The Technology Index reflects consumer interest in all manner of consumer electronics, including computers, wireless equipment, cell phones, video games, televisions, home theaters, audio systems, personal music devices, music CDs, DVDs, cameras, and downloads of music or video content.

What is included in the Travel Index?

The Travel Index tells us about consumer interest in major transportation (e.g., airline tickets, inter-city bus tickets and inter-city rail tickets), destination accommodations (e.g., hotels and resorts), destination dining, rental cars, tours, cruises, amusement parks and casinos.

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