 | October 13, 2009 - 'Weighted Composite Index' Reflects Continued Growth:
The week that ended on October 13th saw our 'Weighted Composite Index' soften somewhat while remaining above 101 and in a net-growth posture. The longer term story also remained solid: our 'Trailing Quarter' percentile stayed in the vicinity of the upper third of all 'NIPA' quarters since 1947, our 'Trailing Six Months' percentile continued to be among the top half of all half-year periods available in the 'NIPA' tables, and our 'Trailing Year' indicated a 'year' that was statistically better than 29 of any random selection of 100 years should be. Stated another way, we could expect a year like our 'Trailing Year' about once in every 3.5 years -- a substantial improvement from early December 2008 when our 'Trailing Year' was the worst that could be expected in any 44 year period!
Several of our sector indexes demonstrated interesting behavior over the prior month. Although the aggregate Entertainment Index remained relatively neutral, the Concerts and Sporting Events Sub-Indexes soared. These sub-indexes may have captured higher ticket price activities among a younger and more mobile demographic. Similarly, although the Automotive Index weakened somewhat, the European and Luxury Auto Sub-Indexes turned sharply up. This again was indicative of selective Consumer interest in upscale items.
Further evidence of a developing trend in increasingly upscale Consumer activities was seen in the Technology and Travel sectors. Both the Technology Stores Sub-Index (in the Retail sector) and the Computers Sub-Index (in the Technology sector) saw substantial upturns, again reflecting higher ticket activities. And within the Travel sector the Cruises Sub-Index was again showing signs of life after a miserable year-ago year-over-year decline of over 50%! All these signs may mean that those Consumer demographics that were not directly impacted by job losses or mortgage woes (e.g., 'Baby Boomer' retirees) were returning to more normal behaviors and loosening the purse strings at least a little.
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